Category Archives: gold

Idaho Gold?

Three years ago, it was hailed as a second coming and the dawn of a new age.  Hidden underneath was an appeal to the primal instincts of goldphiles everywhere.

On February 13, 2021, Idaho Bill H0007 was passed by 51-19.  The bill states, “Amends existing law to provide that idle moneys may be invested in physical gold and silver in certain instances.” What is most important about this bill is the timing. 

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It was introduced just after the runup in the price of gold from the late 2015 low.

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Whoever the legislator is that proposed such a law is keenly aware of the foibles of followers of gold but also doesn’t have the acumen to know when such a law, in the best interests of the citizens, should have been proposed (2015 or 1999).

The law (found here in PDF format) itself reads as a mockery of the concept of gold as money, go on, read it and laugh…

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The costs of maintaining a facility that is either in state, or in an adjacent state, while the price of gold goes nowhere in the face of mounting inflation really begs the question, to whose benefit is this charade?

See also:

Gold Price Momentum Indicator

Since our January 16, 2023 posting, the price of gold has increased less than 3%.

This makes our commentary at the time seem appropriate when we said: Continue reading

Gold Price Momentum Indicator

Below is a chart of Gold from January 2002 to July 2023, reflecting Price Momentum data.

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Gold Review

Below are the thoughts we have on the price of Gold based on several indicators. Continue reading

Gold Price Momentum

Below is a chart of Gold from 2002 to 2022, reflecting Price Momentum data.

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Gold Price Momentum

Below is a chart of Gold from 2002 to 2021, reflecting Price Momentum data.

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Gold Dealers Sell What?

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Homestake Mining from 1918 to 1968

Below is the price chart of Homestake Mining (HM) from 1918 to 1968. Continue reading

Dome Mines from 1918 to 1968

Below is the price chart of Dome Mines (DM) from 1918 to 1968. Continue reading

Barrick Gold 10-Year Targets

Below are the valuation targets for Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD) for the next 10 years. Continue reading

Dow Theory on Gold

This from our 2017 Dow Theory on Gold posting:

“It is not enough for the price of gold to simply move higher for us to believe that the primary trend has changed from bearish to bullish.  [Charles] Dow points to what he expects to see at the conclusion of a primary trend, in this case at the end of a bull market:

"Another method is what is called the theory of double tops. Records of trading show that in many cases when a stock reaches top it will have a moderate decline and then go back again to near the highest figures. If after such a move, the price again recedes, it is liable to decline some distance (Dow, Charles H. Wall Street Journal. July 20, 1901.)."

What does Dow’s Theory say on the recent price movement of gold? Continue reading

Chart of the Day: Dome Mines

Below is the annual 52-week low for Dome Mines (DM) from 1960 to 1968.  We’ve also included the Effective Fed Funds Rate as a comparison to show how gold mining stocks perform against the backdrop of rising interest rates.

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In this example, the Effective Fed Funds Rate increased from 1.98% to 6.02%.  Meanwhile, Dome Mines (DM) had a 52-week low range from $17.12 to $46.25.

Chart of the Day: Campbell Red Lake Mines

Below is the annual 52-week low for Campbell Red Lake Mines (CRK) from 1960 to 1968.  We’ve also included the Effective Fed Funds Rate as a comparison to show how gold mining stocks perform against the backdrop of rising interest rates.

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In this example, the Effective Fed Funds Rate increased from 1.98% to 6.02%.  Meanwhile, Campbell Red Lake Mines (CRK) had a 52-week low range from $9.63 to $24.00.

Nasdaq v. Gold from 1971 to 2020

We like the comparison between the “freely” traded price of gold compared to the Nasdaq Composite index because it really shows the difference between the performance in the two over the years.

Most importantly, gold began trading “freely” at around the same time of the initial trading of the Nasdaq Composite Index.  Therefore, there is little in the way of distortion in the data.  Below is the daily price of gold versus the Nasdaq Composite.

Continue reading

Gold and the DJIA

Charles H. Dow, co-founder of the Wall Street Journal, once said:

For the past 25 years the commodity market and the stock market have moved almost exactly together. The index number representing many commodities rose from 88 in 1878 to 120 in 1881. It dropped back to 90 in 1885, rose to 95 in 1891, dropped back to 73 in 1896, and recovered to 90 in 1900. Furthermore, index numbers kept in Europe and applied to quite different commodities had almost exactly the same movement in the same time. It is not necessary to say to anyone familiar with the course of the stock market that this has been exactly the course of stocks in the same period ( source: Dow, Charles. Review and Outlook. Wall Street Journal.February 21, 1901.)”

There is no exactness between the relative percentage change in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the price of a commodity like gold.  However, since the January 26, 2018 peak in the DJIA, there has been a lot of sympathy moves in the price of gold and the DJIA.

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