Performance Review
On February 18, 2015, we generated the following list of stocks for consideration with their respective performance one year later:
| Symbol | Name | 2015 | 2016 | % chg |
| BEI-UN.TO | Boardwalk REIT | 60.69 | 42.00 | -30.80% |
| IGM.TO | IGM Financial Inc. | 44.68 | 33.61 | -24.78% |
| ACO-X.TO | ATCO LTD., CL.I, NV | 46.76 | 37.90 | -18.95% |
| CJR-B.TO | Corus Entertainment Inc. | 21.73 | 9.32 | -57.11% |
| CM.TO | CIBC | 95.39 | 89.01 | -6.69% |
| REF-UN.TO | Canadian REIT | 47.05 | 39.90 | -15.20% |
| RY.TO | Royal Bank of Canada | 77.70 | 69.41 | -10.67% |
| HCG.TO | Home Capital Group Inc. | 43.30 | 29.86 | -31.04% |
There was little surprise in the performance of the stocks on the watch list. As a group (equally weighted) the average change was –24.40% compared to the Toronto Stock Exchange decline of –17.49%.
The analysts were off target for their 1-year projections. Only Canadian REIT (REF-UN.TO) and Boardwalk REIT (BEI-UN.TO) came close (somewhat) to the analyst targets.
A stock of particular interest to us was Home Capital Group (HCG.TO). At the time we said the following of HCG.TO:
“Applying Speed Resistance Lines to HCG.TO, we see that the stock has already declined to the conservative downside target of $37.92. Because it appears that we are in the early stages of the economic decline in Canada, HCG.TO might be worth watching to see if the stock can decline to the $28.21 level. The extreme downside target is $18.51 which confirms the Altimeter low of $20.80. HCG.TO should be considered in three stages starting below the ascending $37.92, $28.21 and $18.51 levels.”
Not surprisingly, HCG.TO declined as low as 23.16 on January 15, 2016. This has set the stage for our latest risk assessment (as noted below).
