Category Archives: hpq

What a Time to Issue a Sell Rating

In honor of the latest “sell” rating on Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), this time coming from Jefferies and Co. (article found here), we’d like to give the “Stock Quote of the Day” to UBS for their sell recommendation of HPQ at the worst possible time (sell recommendation here).  On January 11, 2011, UBS gave a “buy” recommendation of HPQ when the stock was trading at $44.86 (buy recommendation here).  On August 7, 2012, over a year later and after a -58% decline, UBS finally gave a “sell” rating on HPQ.

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A “sell” rating on HPQ after the stock has decline so much in the last two years does not do justice to the use of a buy or sell rating.  We’re not suggesting that HPQ is a “buy” at this point in time.  However, this is traditionally when values are confirm through additional due diligence.  If a person had already held shares of HPQ, the only reason to sell at this point is if you believe the company is going out of business within the next twelve months.

Is it any wonder that investors tend to buy high and sell low?

2008 Transaction Overview

Below are all of my closed transactions for 2008 with the percentage realized gain or loss along with the percentage of the portfolio of each position. Closed positions are those that were done after the purchase of the stock took place. Therefore, purchases that took place in 2007 may have been close in 2008 while purchases in late 2008 may not have reflected a gain or loss until 2009. As an example, FDO was purchased in late December 2007 and sold late January 2008.
After transaction costs, the total return in the portfolio for 2008 was 14.35%. The dividend yield received on the account was 2.53%, with the dividend accounting for 17.62% of the total change in the account value. I am open to questions about the rational for selecting a particular stock at a given time during 2008. One thing that will be noticed about the differences between 2008 and 2009 is that 2009 has far fewer transactions.
Because this portfolio actually made money when the major indices lost close to 40% in 2008, I'm hoping to replicated this approach (mainly to avoid losing money in a market downturn.) I would appreciate any constructive insights or thoughts by you the reader. I'm hoping this will be an instructive moment for everyone involved. If you don't wish to post in the comment section then send me an email.I will be posting my transaction history for 2009 here shortly.

-Touc
Symbol
Close date
Total % Gain % of Portfolio
(FDO)
 
1/31/2008
 
10.65%
 
96.67%
(WSC)
 
2/11/2008
 
-3.93%
 
94.28%
(AIG)
 
2/28/2008
 
12.52%
 
82.65%
(CTAS)
 
3/13/2008
 
-3.81%
 
29.43%
(CDE)
 
3/13/2008
 
-12.42%
 
1.91%
(BSC)
 
3/14/2008
 
7.33%
 
26.10%
(HTX)
 
3/24/2008
 
1.73%
 
29.52%
(KGC)
 
3/24/2008
 
-16.73%
 
38.15%
(CTAS)
 
4/16/2008
 
-4.34%
 
31.11%
(GSS)
 
4/16/2008
 
-13.21%
 
1.77%
(NC)
 
7/23/2008
 
27.30%
 
32.11%
(MSA)
 
8/11/2008
 
19.02%
 
36.71%
(WIN)
 
8/14/2008
 
5.55%
 
27.27%
(BGG)
 
8/27/2008
 
1.27%
 
31.38%
(ANAT)
 
9/9/2008
 
-11.64%
 
28.26%
(EXPD)
 
9/9/2008
 
-5.51%
 
33.01%
(HPQ)
 
9/9/2008
 
115.03%
 
0.07%
(NSEC)
 
9/9/2008
 
-17.36%
 
3.08%
(TDS)
 
9/9/2008
 
-3.97%
 
38.10%
(NEM)
 
9/17/2008
 
3.27%
 
32.03%
(HL)
 
9/18/2008
 
5.70%
 
39.06%
(AIG)
 
9/23/2008
 
33.94%
 
38.27%
(ANAT)
 
9/29/2008
 
2.80%
 
29.25%
(ADM)
 
9/30/2008
 
-8.43%
 
20.77%
(WAG)
 
9/30/2008
 
-1.75%
 
44.09%
(TMR)
 
10/7/2008
 
-14.66%
 
11.36%
(NXG)
 
10/7/2008
 
-12.72%
 
11.40%
(AEM)
 
10/10/2008
 
-3.03%
 
15.58%
(FNM)
 
10/10/2008
 
-46.25%
 
7.14%
(GSS)
 
10/10/2008
 
-8.66%
 
12.11%
(JOF)
 
10/14/2008
 
2.34%
 
22.18%
(DOG)
 
10/15/2008
 
1.14%
 
43.23%
(AIG)
 
10/20/2008
 
-2.55%
 
66.35%
(BMI)
 
10/22/2008
 
-5.40%
 
35.38%
(EUM)
 
10/27/2008
 
5.26%
 
46.63%
(AEM)
 
10/28/2008
 
-4.08%
 
25.83%
(ABX)
 
10/28/2008
 
-2.92%
 
24.26%
(CTL)
 
10/31/2008
 
-9.93%
 
34.18%
(NC)
 
10/31/2008
 
-0.14%
 
43.42%
(NC)
 
11/7/2008
 
-12.16%
 
49.47%