Performance Review
Below is the performance of the stocks listed on our watch list dated May 2015:
| symbol | Name | 2015 | 2016 | % chg |
| GLRE | Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd. | 30.24 | 20.40 | -32.54% |
| PNX | The Phoenix Companies Inc. | 33.30 | 36.93 | 10.90% |
| CRD-B | Crawford & Company | 8.25 | 8.23 | -0.24% |
| ACE | ACE Limited | 107.63 | 137.79 | 28.02% |
| RNR | RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. | 103.09 | 114.93 | 11.49% |
| BRO | Brown & Brown Inc. | 31.85 | 35.74 | 12.21% |
| Average | 4.97% |
Ace Limited gains are estimates based on the stock price change since the acquisition of Chubb Limited (CB). Ace Limited changed its name to Chubb and assumed the same stock symbol.
Market Outlook
On our watch list summary dated May 1, 2015, we said the following:
“Is the U.S. insurance sector running out of gas? By the looks of the chart below, all indications are that the glorious run from the 2009 low may be over. The iShares US Insurance ETF (IAK) seems to be running out of steam just as it approaches the previous high set in 2007. A breakout to the upside is possible but not before taking a break to the downside.”
Since May 2015, the iShares US Insurance ETF (IAK) has traded in a range with some downside action and very little upside movement.
American insurers are making a nice recovery higher from the lows set in mid-February 2016. However, looming ahead is the double top indicated at points A and B on the chart. Failure to exceed these points could result in a decline below the February 2016 low. Alternatively, a breakout to the upside could be especially profitable for investors.
What is an investor to do under these circumstances? It is worth noting that last year we said there was considerable risk of decline in the insurance sector, however, we also bought a couple of American insurance stocks. both of those stock did exceptionally well relative to IAK, garnering gains of more that +20% each, relative to the IAK gain of +5%.
