Below is a ranking from our November 9, 2012 watch list based on the analyst’s low earnings estimate for 2013. This list ranks the potential price gain at 10% and above assuming that the analyst’s lowest estimate for earnings materialize and the P/E ratio remains the same as when our original watch list was created.
We chose to utilize the analyst’s low estimates because the mean and high estimates for stocks tend to be too optimistic. By going with the lowest or most pessimistic estimate, we have the ability to “play it safe” for the company prospects going forward.
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Symbol
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Name | Price | % Yr Low | P/E | EPS (ttm) | 2013 low EPS est. | # of analysts | est. price | est. % change |
| UNM | Unum Group | 19.66 | 7.55% | 23.13 | 0.85 | 3.2 | 16 | $74.02 | 276.48% |
| JCI | Johnson Controls Inc | 25.52 | 9.20% | 14.34 | 1.78 | 2.76 | 18 | $39.58 | 55.09% |
| FRS | Frisch’s Restaurants, Inc | 17.75 | 6.29% | 16.9 | 1.05 | 1.48 | n/a | $25.01 | 40.91% |
| TMP | Tompkins Financial Corp. | 38.65 | 7.90% | 15.84 | 2.44 | 3.38 | 3 | $53.54 | 38.52% |
| ABM | ABM Industries, Inc. | 19.02 | 6.55% | 19.61 | 0.97 | 1.32 | 6 | $25.89 | 36.09% |
| SON | Sonoco Products Co. | 30.45 | 6.43% | 17.11 | 1.78 | 2.3 | 14 | $39.35 | 29.24% |
| FDS | FactSet Research Systems | 89.83 | 5.21% | 21.8 | 4.12 | 5.07 | 8 | $110.53 | 23.04% |
| UTX | United Technologies Corp. | 75.84 | 7.71% | 15.6 | 4.86 | 5.98 | 18 | $93.29 | 23.01% |
| WGL | WGL Holdings, Inc. | 38.19 | 1.43% | 19.39 | 1.97 | 2.4 | 7 | $46.54 | 21.85% |
| MSEX | Middlesex Water Company | 18.65 | 7.37% | 21.69 | 0.86 | 1.04 | 3 | $22.56 | 20.95% |
| OMI | Owens & Minor, Inc. | 29.02 | 6.03% | 16.97 | 1.71 | 2.05 | 7 | $34.79 | 19.88% |
| STBA | S&T BanCorp., Inc. | 16.51 | 5.29% | 13.99 | 1.18 | 1.4 | 7 | $19.59 | 18.63% |
| BUSE | First Busey Corp. | 4.41 | 1.38% | 20.05 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 5 | $5.21 | 18.21% |
| EGN | Energen Corp. | 43.43 | 8.22% | 15.29 | 2.84 | 3.35 | 12 | $51.22 | 17.94% |
| RAVN | Raven Industries, Inc. | 27.4 | 9.21% | 18.77 | 1.46 | 1.69 | 1 | $31.72 | 15.77% |
| NJR | New Jersey Resources Corp. | 41.21 | 0.68% | 18.23 | 2.26 | 2.61 | 6 | $47.58 | 15.46% |
| IBKC | IBERIABANK Corp. | 47.9 | 8.18% | 19.01 | 2.52 | 2.9 | 10 | $55.13 | 15.09% |
| PEP | PepsiCo Inc. | 68.85 | 10.78% | 18.31 | 3.76 | 4.31 | 14 | $78.92 | 14.62% |
| IBM | IBM | 189.64 | 7.10% | 13.63 | 13.91 | 15.88 | 23 | $216.44 | 14.13% |
| APD | Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. | 79.73 | 4.76% | 14.66 | 5.44 | 6.2 | 17 | $90.89 | 14.00% |
| TNC | Tennant Co. | 36.96 | 6.24% | 18.12 | 2.04 | 2.3 | 4 | $41.68 | 12.76% |
| JW-A | John Wiley & Sons Inc. CL ‘A’ | 42.34 | 0.76% | 13.03 | 3.25 | 3.6 | 2 | $46.91 | 10.79% |
| CAH | Cardinal Health, Inc. | 40 | 8.37% | 12.66 | 3.16 | 3.49 | 15 | $44.18 | 10.46% |
| FNB | F.N.B. Corp. | 10.65 | 8.78% | 13.83 | 0.77 | 0.85 | 10 | $11.76 | 10.38% |
The refinement of our November 9, 2012 watch list should improve the usefulness of that list as a way of determining which companies to concentrate your investment dollars. The very last column is where we believe additional adjustments could be made. As an example, the very first stock on our list is UNM with an expected gain of +276.48% in the coming year (assuming the P/E ratio remains the same with the estimated 2013 earnings). We like to assume that we’d only achieve half of what the potential might be. In the case of UNM, our adjusted expectation is that the stock could gain as much as +138.24% (all thing being equal).