Category Archives: Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Performance Review

This is the performance from the October 1, 2016 Nasdaq 100 Watch List:

The entire watch list average a gain of +2.43% compared to the analyst estimate of +8.70%.  The watch list categories had the following performance:

The performance in the last year was horrendous for the expectations that we set on the Nasdaq watch list.  Compared to the Nasdaq 100 gain of +27% the above watch list gained a meager +2.43%.  Adding insult to injury was the section labeled “Sell the Principal” where stocks that seemed to have excessive gains were thought by us to have warranted selling the principal.

Massive gains in the five listed stocks averaged a gain of +73.74% in the last year.  That leaves little to debate in terms of the success or failure to the idea of selling the principal.

Performance Review

Looking back at the watch list from March 2016, we can see that the first five stocks managed to eke out a modest gain of +6.33%.  This subset performance was severely below the Nasdaq 100 Index increase of +20.44%, in the same period of time.

When viewed from the perspective of the analysts (in blue), we see that the estimates for the coming year (at the time) were far short of the actual performance (in red) in the stock price as represented below.

According to Yahoo!Finance, there are seven analysts that track QVC Group (QVCA) are included in their analyst estimates.  It is worth considering, for additional research, finding the analyst(s) who were best able to  call QVC Group (QVCA).  Additionally, the same analyst(s) have a low expectation of $1.02 earnings and a high of $1.71 in earnings for the coming year, putting the stock price in a range of $20.40 to $34.20.  We believe that the analysts for QVCA have a good beat on this stock, let’s see if the same performance follows in the coming year.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Below is the watch list for March 2017 and the earnings estimates with the price projection based on those estimates as well as a strong interest stock.

Continue reading →

Performance Review

This is the performance from the September 25, 2015 Nasdaq 100 Watch List.

If we exclude the change from Yahoo (YHOO), Wynn (WYNN), Mylan (MYL) and Applied Materials (AMAT) then the analyst performance was mostly on target.

Performance Review

Below is the performance of our Nasdaq 100 Watch List dated September 11, 2015.   In addition, we have broken out the performance to the various categories that we assigned at that time.

The stocks that were favored by analysts to perform the best (high expectations) were unable to exceed the stocks that we highlighted as likely to do better than average.  Stocks highlighted as “average risk” and “high risk” far exceeded the performance of the Nasdaq 100 index and notched better gains than “high expectation” stocks.

The worst three stocks were Western Digital (WDC), Bed Bath & Beyond and Mylan (MYL) at –41.69%, –24.91% and –17.47%, respectively.  the best three stocks were Applied Materials (AMAT), Autodesk (ADSK) and Yahoo (YHOO) at +93.55%, +46.74% and +37.73%, respectively.

Continue reading →

Performance Review

Below is the performance of the Nasdaq 100 stocks from our April 24, 2015 watch list:

The analyst estimates of one year ago are compared to the actual performance.  As can be seen, 3 of 4 stocks expected to decline did while 2 of 5 stocks rose in price that were anticipated to rise.

We mentioned or discussed a few stocks of interest at the time. QCOM and FOSL bombed while SNDK and KLAC exceeded expectations. However, the one stock that stood out the most was regarding NetApp (NTAP).  At the time, we said:

“Investors should remember that with analyst estimates for a +44% gain in the coming year, there is the possibility that expectations are so high that any minor earnings or revenue miss could crater the stock.  In spite of the potential negatives, we think that NTAP could be a takeout target in the next year.”

While there was some talk of NTAP as an acquisition target, the reality was that it was just talk and not much else.  However, the most important issue at the time was proven to be correct, excessive expectations of gains by analysts were met by the most negative divergence in performance.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Performance Review

Below is the performance of the watch list stocks from our March 27, 2015 posting:

The watch list averaged an equal weighted loss of –1.32% while the first five stocks averaged a gain of +3.15%.  This compares to the gain for the Nasdaq 100 Index of +0.52% over the last year.  The stocks of interest (STX, QCOM, SNDK, KLAC) had worse than average results with an equal weighted decline of –6.00%.  Our quote at the time was:

“In the chip sector, the recent announcement by Intel that they are interested in buying Altera (ALTR) suggests that further consolidation of the industry is on the way.”

Since that March 2015 posting, all of the companies were involved in some kind of merger/acquisition activity.  Sandisk was supposed to go to Western Digital, Seagate acquired Dot Hill, Lam Research acquired/merged with KLA-Tencor and rumors abounded about Intel actually buying Qualcomm. The mixed results of the stock performance over the last year should not be confused for the long-term reality of this sector.  These stock will be acquired or rendered irrelevant in due time (as is the rule for all stock investments).  However, the odds favor the production, storage/memory and plant assembly in the chip sector.

Performance Review

Below is the performance of the nine stocks from the January 9, 2015 Nasdaq 100 watch list compared to the performance of the Nasdaq 100 Index in the last year.

The nine stocks on our 2015 watch list increased +17.37% while the Nasdaq 100 index gained +1.36%.  The biggest gain was Amazon.com (AMZN) which increased +104.43%.  The largest loss was generated by Qualcomm (QCOM) which fell by –38.35%.  The top five stocks (NUAN, GOOGL, GOOG, MAT, DISCA) gained +20.12%.

The stock that we were most interested in was Nuance Communications (NUAN).  At the time, we said of NUAN:

“NUAN has met all of Gould’s downside targets (extreme at $10.15 and conservative at $24.80.  All that is left for NUAN is to decline to the actual $10.15 price and the 2008 low at $6.18.  Speculators (as opposed to investors) should consider investment into this stock in three stages, once at the current price then the next two at $10.15 and $6.18 levels.” 

The 1-year performance chart for NUAN is below:

Right out the gate, NUAN meandered higher and then took off in late April.  For a stock that was left for dead, we believed that the chances favored NUAN going forward.

Continue reading →