Members
-
Topics
Archives
-
-
Recent Posts
-
-
-
Investor Education
Market Return After Exceptional Years
Dollar Cost Averaging Tool
Dow Theory: The Formation of a Line
Dividend Capture Strategy Analysis
Golden Cross – How Golden Is It?
Debunked – Death Cross
Work Smart, Not Hard
Charles H. Dow, Father of Value Investing
It's All About the Dividends
Dow Theory: Buying in Scales
How to Avoid Losses
When Dividends are Canceled
Cyclical and Secular Markets
Inflation Proof Myth
What is Fair Value?
Issues with P-E Ratios
Beware of Gold Dividends
Gold Standard Myth
Lagging Gold Stocks?
No Sophisticated Investors
Dollar down, Gold up?
Problems with Market Share
Aim for Annualized Returns
Anatomy of Bear Market Trade
Don’t Use Stop Orders
How to Value Earnings
Low Yields, Big Gains
Set Limits, Gain More
Ex-Dividend Dates -
-
Historical Data
1290-1950: Price Index
1670-2012: Inflation Rate
1790-1947: Wholesale Price Cycle
1795-1973: Real Estate Cycle
1800-1965: U.S. Yields
1834-1928: U.S. Stock Index
1835-2019: Booms and Busts
1846-1895: Gold/Silver Value
1853-2019: Recession/Depression Index
1860-1907: Most Active Stock Average
1870-2033: Real Estate Cycles
1871-2020: Market Dividend Yield
1875-1940: St. Louis Rents
1876-1934: Credit-New Dwellings
1896-1925: Inflation-Stocks
1897-2019: Sentiment Index
1900-1903: Dow Theory
1900-1923: Cigars and Cigarettes
1900-2019: Silver/Dow Ratio
1901-2019: YoY DJIA
1903-1907: Dow Theory
1906-1932: Barron's Averages
1907-1910: Dow Theory
1910-1913: Dow Theory
1910-1936: U.S. Real Estate
1910-2016: Union Pacific Corp.
1914-2012: Fed/GDP Ratio
1919-1934: Barron's Industrial Production
1920-1940: Homestake Mining
1921-1939: US Realty
1922-1930: Discount Rate
1924-2001: Gold/Silver Stocks
1927-1937: Borden Co.
1927-1937: National Dairy Products
1927-1937: Union Carbide
1928-1943: Discount Rate
1929-1937: Monsanto Co.
1937-1969: Intelligent Investor
1939-1965: Utility Stocks v. Interest Rates
1941-1967: Texas Pacific Land
1947-1970: Inventory-Sales Ratio
1948-2019: Profits v. DJIA
1949-1970: Dow 600? SRL
1958-1976: Gold Expert
1963-1977: Farmland Values
1971-2018: Nasdaq v. Gold
1971-1974: REIT Crash
1972-1979: REIT Index Crash
1986-2018: Hang Seng Index Cycles
1986-2019: Crude Oil Cycles
1999-2017: Cell Phone Market Share
2008: Transaction History
2010-2021: Bitcoin Cycles -
Interesting Read
Inside a Moneymaking Machine Like No Other
The Fuzzy, Insane Math That's Creating So Many Billion-Dollar Tech Companies
Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters
Forex Investors May Face $1 Billion Loss as Trade Site Vanishes
Why the oil price is falling
How a $600 Million Hedge Fund Disappeared
Hedge Fund Manager Who Remembers 1998 Rout Says Prepare for Pain
Swiss National Bank Starts Negative
Tice: Crash is Coming...Although
More on Edson Gould (PDF)
Schiller's CAPE ratio is wrong
Double-Digit Inflation in the 1970s (PDF)
401k Crisis
Quick Link Archive
Category Archives: Nasdaq 100 Watch List
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: August 28, 2015
Performance Review
Below is the performance of the companies that appeared on our August 26, 2014 watch list.
| symbol | Name | 2014 | 2015 | % chg |
| MAT | Mattel, Inc. | 34.66 | 23.2 | -33.06% |
| CA | CA Technologies, Inc. | 28.31 | 27.26 | -3.71% |
| SPLS | Staples, Inc. | 11.06 | 13.75 | 24.32% |
| WFM | Whole Foods Market, Inc. | 38.495 | 32.85 | -14.66% |
| XLNX | Xilinx Inc. | 41.78 | 42.27 | 1.17% |
| FOSL | Fossil Group, Inc. | 102.5 | 61.6 | -39.90% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 45.73 | 38.69 | -15.39% |
| DLTR | Dollar Tree, Inc. | 53.51 | 76.73 | 43.39% |
| EXPD | Expeditors Intl of Wash | 41.64 | 49.66 | 19.26% |
| SRCL | Stericycle, Inc. | 119.06 | 142 | 19.27% |
The list of stocks achieved an average gain of +0.07% compared to the Nasdaq 100 gain of +6.28%.
This watch list achieved exceptional performance based on the analyst estimates as six of the ten stocks exceeded analyst expectations (MAT, WFM, DLTR, EXPD, SPLS, SRCL).
Nasdaq 100 Watch List
Below are the Nasdaq 100 stocks worth your consideration along with the analyst estimates of price change for the coming year.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: June 26, 2015
Below is the performance of the stocks from our June 20, 2014 Nasdaq 100 watch list compared to the Nasdaq 100 Index gain of +17.84% over the last year.
| Symbol | 2014 | 2015 | actual chg |
| LMCA | 35.07 | 37.26 | 6.24% |
| WFM | 39.22 | 40.35 | 2.88% |
| COST | 115.36 | 138.06 | 19.68% |
| BBBY | 60.07 | 71.11 | 18.38% |
| SPLS | 11.19 | 16.05 | 43.43% |
| FOSL | 105.6 | 71.79 | -32.02% |
| VRSK | 60.46 | 74.51 | 23.24% |
| ROST | 33.65 | 50.27 | 49.39% |
| DLTR | 53.68 | 81.66 | 52.12% |
| EBAY | 49.34 | 61.03 | 23.69% |
| DISCA | 37.71 | 33.84 | -10.26% |
| CA | 28.73 | 29.89 | 4.04% |
| NTAP | 35.79 | 32.36 | -9.58% |
Below is the analyst estimates from last year compared to the actual performance of the stocks.
At the extremes we see that Liberty Media (LMCA), Whole Foods (WFM), Fossil (FOSL), Discovery Communications (DISCA) and NetApp (NTAP) went in opposite directions of the analysts. At the same time, the expectations for the remaining stocks didn’t quite come as close as anticipated. The lone exception is Ebay (EBAY) which was expected to gain +16.34% as opposed to +23.69% of actual change.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List
Below is the latest list of stocks that we believe present the best investment opportunities from the Nasdaq 100 Index.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: June 5, 2015
Below are the analyst estimates (in red) from our May 30, 2014 Nasdaq 100 Watch List and the actual performance of the stocks (blue).
The actual performance continues to reflect our theory that, at the time of the estimates, the analysts are likely to be too pessimistic of those stocks that have recently fallen on hard times while too optimistic for the stocks that have performed “better.” Keep in mind that the list of stocks that we follow are already considered to be unloved. However, the analyst estimates are routinely far off the mark.
The following was our commentary on the watch list last year:
“As we head into the month of June, we have to expect that LMCA and ISRG are the most likely to provide upside surprises as these stocks are considered by most analysts to underperform the market by a wide margin.”
As expected, LMCA and ISRG went in the opposite direction of the analyst estimates. Liberty Media gained +16.25% instead of falling –69.24% while Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) gained +33.90% instead of falling –31.50%.
Our specific stock of interest was Ross Stores (ROST). Of ROST, we said the following:
“If a repeat of the previous decline were to occur, we should expect $61.49 to appear on our radar before a meaning[ful] attempt at the old high. We would not be buyers of the stock at the present time, however, the extreme upside target for this stock is $113.19 based on the work of Gould.”
Since our May 30, 2014 posting, ROST declined to $61.83 (within 1% of our estimated downside target) before climbing as high as $108.91 (within 4% of our estimated upside target) by March 24, 2015.
Nasdaq Watch List
Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are on our radar.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: May 8, 2015
Performance Review
Below is the performance of the Nasdaq 100 watch list from May 9, 2014:
| Symbol | Name | 2014 | 2015 | % change |
| DISCA | Discovery Comm. | 37.33 | 31.33 | -16.07% |
| BBBY | Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. | 61.31 | 71.44 | 16.52% |
| ISRG | Intuitive Surgical, Inc. | 353.06 | 494.32 | 40.01% |
| NTAP | NetApp, Inc. | 34.19 | 35.65 | 4.27% |
| EBAY | eBay Inc. | 50.54 | 58.82 | 16.38% |
| ALTR | Altera Corp. | 32.38 | 44.46 | 37.31% |
| WFM | Whole Foods Market, Inc. | 39.32 | 42.58 | 8.29% |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc. | 3.16 | 3.87 | 22.47% |
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics, Inc. | 60.53 | 73.66 | 21.69% |
| COST | Costco Wholesale | 115.39 | 145.88 | 26.42% |
| LMCA | Liberty Media Corp. | 34.18 | 37.93 | 10.97% |
| SRCL | Stericycle, Inc. | 113.90 | 134.01 | 17.66% |
| CERN | Cerner Corporation | 50.19 | 68.02 | 35.53% |
| CA | CA Technologies | 29.41 | 31.60 | 7.45% |
The average gain of the entire list was +17.78% while the top five stocks (DISCA, BBBY, ISRG, NTAP, EBAY) gained an average of +12.22%. This compares with the gain for the Nasdaq 100 index of +23.41% in the same 1-year time period.
As has frequently been the case, analyst expectations were too optimistic for stocks on the far right (DISCA, CA, CERN, SIRI, NTAP) where the average gains of +10.73%. Likewise, the view was too pessimistic for stocks on the far left (LMCA, ISRG, WFM, COST, BBBY) which averaged +20.44% in the above chart.
The absolute change in Liberty Media (LMCA) and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) was the most extreme. Liberty Media saw its p/e ratio expand from 20 to 72 while ISRG’s p/e ratio increased from 26 to 39. The increase in the p/e ratio should be expected with the increase in price. However, value oriented investors would have overlooked these stocks simply because of the high p/e ratios and the expectation of lower earnings by analysts in 2014.
Watch List: May 8, 2015
Below are the Nasdaq 100 stocks of interest:
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: April 24, 2015
Performance Review
Below is the performance of our April 25, 2014 watch list.
| Symbol | Name | 2014 | 2015 | % chg |
| BBBY | Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. | 62.48 | 72.53 | 16.09% |
| CTRX | Catamaran Corporation | 38.95 | 59.56 | 52.91% |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc. | 3.12 | 3.96 | 26.92% |
| NTAP | NetApp, Inc. | 35.00 | 36.12 | 3.20% |
| ISRG | Intuitive Surgical, Inc. | 366.37 | 505.92 | 38.09% |
| DISCA | Discovery Comm | 39.14 | 32.71 | -16.43% |
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics, Inc. | 57.81 | 72.68 | 25.72% |
| COST | Costco Wholesale | 115.01 | 148.12 | 28.79% |
| ALTR | Altera Corp. | 33.09 | 40.89 | 23.57% |
| SRCL | Stericycle, Inc. | 113.96 | 136.94 | 20.16% |
| CERN | Cerner Corporation | 49.51 | 73.32 | 48.09% |
| ROST | Ross Stores Inc. | 67.77 | 104.38 | 54.02% |
| MAT | Mattel, Inc. | 37.99 | 30.20 | -20.51% |
| DLTR | Dollar Tree, Inc. | 51.36 | 81.14 | 57.98% |
The average return for the entire list was +25.62% compared to the Nasdaq 100 index gaining +28.41% in the same period of time. The top five stocks on our list (BBBY, CTRX, SIRI, NTAP, ISRG) gained +27.44% in the last year (excluding dividends).
As is common with our watch lists, a stock is being acquired at what we believe is a premium. CTRX is being acquired by UnitedHealth (UNH), a Dow Jones Industrial Average component. At the time of our watch list last year, CTRX was within 3% of the low. Additionally, the announcement of the purchase by UNH followed the pattern of many companies buying the intended target after a gain over of +24% within the year and +177% within the last 5 years.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: April 24, 2015
Below are the 9 Nasdaq 100 stocks that we think are worth your consideration:
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: April 10, 2015
Performance Review
Below is the performance of the stocks from the April 11, 2014 Nasdaq 100 watch list compared to the Nasdaq 100 Index gain of +28.29%. The entire list gained +23.49% while the top five stocks gained +31.76%.
| Symbol | Name | 2014 | 2015 | % chg |
| SHLD | Sears Holdings | 32.62 | 42.93 | 31.61% |
| BBBY | Bed Bath & Beyond | 63.72 | 73.43 | 15.24% |
| CTRX | Catamaran Corp. | 38.89 | 59.61 | 53.28% |
| VRSK | Verisk Analytics, Inc. | 56.55 | 72.86 | 28.84% |
| SRCL | Stericycle, Inc. | 109.33 | 141.93 | 29.82% |
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc. | 3.16 | 3.95 | 25.00% |
| CTXS | Citrix Systems, Inc. | 54.56 | 63.8 | 16.94% |
| DISCA | Discovery Comm. | 39.69 | 33.04 | -16.75% |
| SPLS | Staples, Inc. | 11.83 | 16.72 | 41.34% |
| MAT | Mattel, Inc. | 37.82 | 24.23 | -35.93% |
| COST | Costco Wholesale | 112.08 | 149.63 | 33.50% |
| CHRW | CH Robinson Worldwide | 54.87 | 72.06 | 31.33% |
| DLTR | Dollar Tree, Inc. | 50.74 | 82.87 | 63.32% |
| LBTYA | Liberty Global plc | 38.56 | 52.55 | 36.28% |
| NTAP | NetApp, Inc. | 35.97 | 35.47 | -1.39% |
The actual change versus the analyst estimated change is represented below.
Worth noting is that of the top five stocks expected to outperform, none of the stocks exceeded the analyst expectations. Alternatively, of the five stocks to perform the worst, four of the five stocks substantially out performed the analyst expectations.
Nasdaq Watch List
Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are on our radar.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: March 27, 2015
Performance Review
Below is the performance of the nine stocks from our March 14, 2014 Nasdaq 100 watch list compared to the performance of the Nasdaq 100 Index gain of +20.50% over the last year.
| symbol | Name | 2014 | 2015 | % chg |
| CTSH | Cognizant Technology Solutions | 50.25 | 63 | 25.37% |
| CHRW | CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. | 51.14 | 73.03 | 42.80% |
| SYMC | Symantec Corporation | 20.16 | 23.35 | 15.82% |
| SPLS | Staples, Inc. | 11.3 | 16.11 | 42.57% |
| CTRX | Catamaran Corporation | 45.87 | 48.32 | 5.34% |
| MAT | Mattel, Inc. | 37.28 | 22.61 | -39.35% |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | 21.35 | 27.13 | 27.07% |
| average | 17.09% |
The listed stocks only averaged gains of +17.09% in the last year. However, the top five stocks averaged gains of +26.38%. The two top performing stocks, CH Robinson Worldwide and Staples, were highlighted as being of interest to as the time (we bought shares of CHRW). Of CHRW, we said the following:
“According to Edson Gould’s Altimeter, Robinson Worldwide is trading at an equivalent price to the 2009 low.”
The Altimeter appeared to reflect the fact that the stock was reasonably valued. CHRW was up as much as +50% in the last year.
Regarding Staples (SPLS), we said:
“After bottoming in the last half of 2012, Staples increased by +52% before collapsing to the current level. Dow Theory suggests that this is a classic retest of the prior lows.”
Since the March 2014 posting, Staples (SPLS) has increased as much as +68%.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List
Posted in CHRW, Nasdaq 100 Watch List, SPLS
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: February 20, 2015
Below are the seven Nasdaq 100 companies that are on our radar. We will be adding to our current position in one of the stocks listed below.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: February 6, 2015
Performance Review
Below is the performance of the six stocks from the February 21, 2014 Nasdaq 100 watch list compared to the Nasdaq 100 Index gain of +15.46%.
|
Symbol
|
Name |
2014 | 2015 | change |
| SYMC | Symantec Corporation | $20.53 | $24.77 | 20.65% |
| MAT | Mattel, Inc. | $35.55 | $28.22 | -20.62% |
| CHRW | CH Robinson Worldwide | $54.12 | $70.51 | 30.28% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | $45.61 | $42.33 | -7.19% |
| SPLS | Staples, Inc. | $13.09 | $16.57 | 26.59% |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | $22.13 | $27.24 | 23.09% |
The average gain for all of the stocks was +12.13%. Symantec (SYMC) was the stock of interest at the time. Our thoughts on SYMC were, “…we don’t see why the stock couldn’t decline a bit further until April or May.” In fact, SYMC declined as low as $17.95, a drop of –12.57%. However, the final low occurred in late March instead of the April/May projection.
At the time of the posting from last year, we outlined the analyst estimated price change for six stocks on our watch list. The projections were as follows:
The actual performance after one year is displayed below.
On the whole, it appears that the analysts were correct about the overall trend for the stocks on our watch list. two of three were (MAT, CHRW and FAST) were expected to be a mixed bag while three of three (CSCO, SYMC and SPLS) were expected to have price increases.
February 6, 2015 Watch List
Below are the 14 Nasdaq 100 companies that are on our radar. As readers know, we have recently taken a sizable position in one of the stocks on this list.
Analyst Estimates
Below are the price projections based on analyst earnings estimates for the stocks on our recent Nasdaq 100 Watch List dated January 9, 2015. These estimates project the 1 year price change for the respective stocks.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: January 9, 2015
Performance Review
Below is the performance of the seven stocks from the January 10, 2014 Nasdaq 100 watch list compared to the performance of the Nasdaq 100 Index in the last year.
| Symbol | Name | 2014 | 2015 | % change |
| ALTR | Altera Corp. | 31.47 | 36.96 | 17.45% |
| SHLD | Sears Holdings | 36.71 | 34.3 | -6.56% |
| GOLD | Randgold Resources | 61.57 | 74.91 | 21.67% |
| MXIM | Maxim Integrated Products | 28.15 | 32.99 | 17.19% |
| CHRW | CH Robinson Worldwide | 57.7 | 72.06 | 24.89% |
| EBAY | eBay Inc. | 52.16 | 55.63 | 6.65% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 47.7 | 45.99 | -3.58% |
| Average change | 11.10% | |||
| Nasdaq 100 | 18.18% |
As a group, the stocks on our list underperformed the Nasdaq 100 by a wide margin. The first five stocks on our list averaged a gain of +14.92%. Two stocks that we took positions in at the time were Altera (ALTR) and Randgold (GOLD).
Analyst Review
The chart below is what the analysts suggested the stocks would do…
…This is the graphical representation of what actually happened.
The observation of the data should be clear, the analysts expected declines for the coming year and the opposite occurred. The projections were that Randgold (GOLD) would decline by nearly –50% and the stock increased by +21.67%. From our perspective, the analysts provide a reasonable sound board for what to anticipate, as has been demonstrated with our Canadian and U.S. Watch Lists.
Below are the nine Nasdaq 100 companies that are on our radar.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: December 26, 2014
Performance Review
The December 6, 2013 watch list contained the following companies and resulted in the accompanying 1-year results:
| Symbol | 2013 | 2014 | % change |
| CTRX | 44.99 | 51.93 | 15.43% |
| ALTR | 32.12 | 38.27 | 19.15% |
| ISRG | 377.38 | 531.24 | 40.77% |
| MXIM | 28.46 | 31.65 | 11.21% |
| CHRW | 57.89 | 76.75 | 32.58% |
| EBAY | 52.01 | 57.04 | 9.67% |
| EQIX | 165.48 | 232.76 | 40.66% |
| GOLD | 65.44 | 66.26 | 1.25% |
The companies on our watch list from last year gained an average of +21.34% as compared to the Nasdaq 100 which gained +23.11%. Our analyst estimate section of the watch list from last year shows what the stock on our list were expected to do over the following 12 months.
All of the stocks were expected to decline in value, overall. However, what is most striking about the one year performance is that while companies on the far left were expected to do the worst those on the far right were expected to the best (sort of). Below is the actual one year performance:
A side by side comparison will demonstrate that (again) the trend of performance favors those stocks that have been pinned with the worst expectations.
Nasdaq 100 Watch List: December 26, 2014
The following stocks are on our radar and should be on yours: