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Charles H. Dow, Father of Value Investing
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Gold Standard Myth
Lagging Gold Stocks?
No Sophisticated Investors
Dollar down, Gold up?
Problems with Market Share
Aim for Annualized Returns
Anatomy of Bear Market Trade
Don’t Use Stop Orders
How to Value Earnings
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Interesting Read
Inside a Moneymaking Machine Like No Other
The Fuzzy, Insane Math That's Creating So Many Billion-Dollar Tech Companies
Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters
Forex Investors May Face $1 Billion Loss as Trade Site Vanishes
Why the oil price is falling
How a $600 Million Hedge Fund Disappeared
Hedge Fund Manager Who Remembers 1998 Rout Says Prepare for Pain
Swiss National Bank Starts Negative
Tice: Crash is Coming...Although
More on Edson Gould (PDF)
Schiller's CAPE ratio is wrong
Double-Digit Inflation in the 1970s (PDF)
401k Crisis
Quick Link Archive
Category Archives: NYT Recession/Depression Index
1879-2020: NYT “Buy Stocks” Reference Index
Below is the charting of the New York Times references to “Buy Stocks” from 1879-2020:
See Also:
NYT Recession/Depression Index
On June 8, 2020, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declared the U.S. economy in recession. This follows the prior call of a recovery in the U.S. economy in June 2009. What does the New York Times Recession/Depression Index look like as of December 22, 2020?
We have put blue arrows to show the points of interest to us. We believe that we’re in the early stages of the recession which should see an intermediate drop in the indicator before another spike to a new high level. That spike should be at or above the 300 level and the peak would mark the end of the recession (+/- month).
See Also:
Posted in NYT Recession/Depression Index
1920-2020: New York Times Inflation Reference Index
Below is the annual New York Times Inflation references from January 1920 to 2020.
See also:
Posted in NYT, NYT Recession/Depression Index
NYT Recession/Depression Index
On June 8, 2020, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declared the U.S. economy in recession. This follows the prior call of a recovery in the U.S. economy in June 2009. What does the New York Times Recession/Depression Index look like?
We have put blue arrows to show the points of interest to us. We believe that we’re in the early stages of the recession which should see an intermediate drop in the indicator before another spike to a new high level. That spike should be at or above the 300 level and the peak would mark the end of the recession (+/- month).
See Also: August 2009: The Recession is Over
NYT Recession/Depression Index
Our New York Times Recession/Depression Index goes back to 1851 (found here). Is it any good? It is fairly reliable in indicating the end of the recession.
Below is the monthly New York Times Recession/Depression Index from January 2000 to April 2020.
The April 2020 numbers are only estimates. However, three days into the month and April is setting up to exceed the 2000 to 2002 period.
see also: August 2009: The Recession is Over
NYT Recession/Depression Index
Below is the monthly New York Times Recession/Depression Index from January 2000 to mid-March 2020.
We think the corner has turned on the New York Times Recession/Depression Index. This means that we think that the U.S. economy is about to enter a recessionary period as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
What about the Federal Reserve’s recent implementation of an emergency rate reduction to zero percent and QE? What about the president’s actions in declaring a national emergency? This may reverse the trend from the November 2017 low.
We’ll gladly take in any new information that can reverse or change the index numbers going forward.
Visit our December 30, 2018 explanation of this index (found here) which goes back to 1851.
NYT Recession/Depression Index
Below is the monthly New York Times Recession/Depression Index from January 2000 to March 2019.
Visit our December 30, 2018 explanation of this index (found here).
New York Times Recession/Depression Index
When the economic data can’t get any better than it is then it is time to shore up your finances. One way to generalize about the economic conditions is to take a look at the New York Times Recession/Depression Index.
What is the New York Times Recession/Depression Index? It is the number of references to either a recession or a depression. In our modern era, the terms “panic” and “depression” are no longer an acceptable part of the general lexicon to denote a decline in economic activity. However, in the late 18th and early 19th century, they told it like it was. in the mid- to late 20th century, the word “recession” replaced the word panic or depression.
In order to tackle the data, we need a reference point. The best starting point is the National Bureau of Economic Research’s (NBER) indication of when a recession begins (peak) and ends (trough). Below are the designations of both periods from 1854 to 2009.
| Peak | Trough |
| December 1854 (IV) | |
| June 1857(II) | December 1858 (IV) |
| October 1860(III) | June 1861 (III) |
| April 1865(I) | December 1867 (I) |
| June 1869(II) | December 1870 (IV) |
| October 1873(III) | March 1879 (I) |
| March 1882(I) | May 1885 (II) |
| March 1887(II) | April 1888 (I) |
| July 1890(III) | May 1891 (II) |
| January 1893(I) | June 1894 (II) |
| December 1895(IV) | June 1897 (II) |
| June 1899(III) | December 1900 (IV) |
| September 1902(IV) | August 1904 (III) |
| May 1907(II) | June 1908 (II) |
| January 1910(I) | January 1912 (IV) |
| January 1913(I) | December 1914 (IV) |
| August 1918(III) | March 1919 (I) |
| January 1920(I) | July 1921 (III) |
| May 1923(II) | July 1924 (III) |
| October 1926(III) | November 1927 (IV) |
| August 1929(III) | March 1933 (I) |
| May 1937(II) | June 1938 (II) |
| February 1945(I) | October 1945 (IV) |
| November 1948(IV) | October 1949 (IV) |
| July 1953(II) | May 1954 (II) |
| August 1957(III) | April 1958 (II) |
| April 1960(II) | February 1961 (I) |
| December 1969(IV) | November 1970 (IV) |
| November 1973(IV) | March 1975 (I) |
| January 1980(I) | July 1980 (III) |
| July 1981(III) | November 1982 (IV) |
| July 1990(III) | March 1991(I) |
| March 2001(I) | November 2001 (IV) |
| December 2007 (IV) | June 2009 (II) |
With the established data on what was considered by the National Bureau of Economic Research as a recession (peak to trough) and expansion (trough to peak), we now have a basis for the quality, or lack thereof, in the New York Times Recession/Depression Reference Index.
The Index
Below is a charting of the data on references made by the New York Times to the words “recession” and “depression.”
Does the Data Match?
For the purposes of clarity, we’ve highlighted the peaks in references to the words “depression” and “recession.” Do any of those peaks happen to match up with the NBER definitions of a period of economic contractions? From what we can tell, there is a 100% coincidence between the peak in the references and either being in a recession/depression or at the beginning of such a period.
2005 to 2018
When looking at the last full cycle, from March 2006 to December 2018, we can see the peak in references to “recessions” which occurred in the month of March 2009.
For the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the period from January 2005 has a clear inverse relationship to the New York Times Recession/Depression Index in the same period of time.
At the current level in the New York Times Recession/Depression Index, would anyone be surprised if a recession were to emerge in 2019? We wouldn’t be surprised.