Category Archives: Pandemic Roundtrip

Q: “With respect to your last sentence, more specifically about the stock market, should it not be more consistent to have seen the stock market return to its prepandemic level, like in (1918-)1921 (The Forgotten Depression)?”

A: In almost every economic measure, we have seen what we have called the pandemic roundtrip.  This means seeing a spike or dramatic drop from March 23, 2020 followed a the opposite move from either the peak or trough back to the March 23, 2020 level. A small sampling below.

We have seen this same phenomenon in many, but not all, stocks.  With almost every box checked for what you would see during a pandemic, we believe that the exceptional performance in the stock market is acceptable.  

Our January 29, 2024 posting clarified in detail, based on the Dow Theory, the issue of when a market is rangebound and how it can be more significant than a crash (presumably to the pandemic low point of March 23, 2020).

See also:

• January 29, 2024