Below are the downside targets for Tesla Inc. (TSLA) as of July 7, 2020.
Parabolic increases rarely go unchecked. This typically means that a decline to the conservative downside target is the norm, at minimum. However, Tesla has had a history of defying the “norm” when it comes to price change.
see also: TSLA downside targets achieved
Posted in downside, parabolic, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL, TSLA
Below are the downside targets for DexCom Inc. (DXCM).
DexCom Inc. has had a healthy increase of the last 2 years and requires a reset. When will that reset occur? We don’t know, however, we suspect that the conservative downside target is the best level to watch for.
Posted in DXCM, parabolic, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL
Below are the downside targets for Paycom Software Inc. (PAYC).
If extended to the IPO date in 2014, we would have generated much lower downside targets. In an effort to be reasonable about expectations, the targets have been set from 2018. The forecast is that PAYC will decline to the ascending level of $224.12.
Posted in parabolic, PAYC, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL
Below are the downside targets for Tesla Inc. (TSLA).
Parabolic increases rarely go unchecked. This typically means that a decline to the conservative downside target is the norm, at minimum. However, Tesla has had a history of defying the “norm” when it comes to price change.
Posted in downside, parabolic, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL, TSLA
In reviewing the price history of Palladium and in light of the most recent parabolic increase, we have outlined the current increase in the price and compare it to the 1996-2003 rise and decline.
1996-2003
In the period from 1996 to 2004, the price of Palladium increased +837% and subsequently declined from the peak by -86.05%.
The chart above includes the Speed Resistance Lines (SRL) based on the work of Edson Gould. In this specific instance, the price of Palladium declined through all of the downside targets. In addition, the continued until it reached a low of approximately $150.50 or -58% below the $359.67 Speed Resistance Line.
In the following review of the most recent increase in Palladium, we’ll compare the 2016-2020 run-up to the increase from 1996 to 2001 to identify the signs of what might come in the price going forward.
Then v. Now
Technically Speaking
When looking at the price of Palladium in both periods, we have identified the most important points contributing to our analysis.
The start to our review is the first intermediate peak after the low. In the case of the 1996-2004 period, that first peak was at $397.50. For the period of 2016-2020, that peak was $1,119.90. The subsequent lows that followed, $272.20 and $877.80, helped to establish the downside targets.
Worth noting is the decline from the initial peaks to slightly below the mid-range downside targets before a continuation of the rising trend to the second intermediate peaks at $718.50 and $1,520.35, respectively. In both cases, the decline from the second intermediate peaks are situated around the conservative downside targets at $631.87 and $1,627.93.
In both cases, the parabolic move ensues after the second intermediate peak, which is a considerable distance from the level of the conservative downside target.
Conclusion
Because of the precedent set in the period from 1996 to 2001, we expect that the conservative downside target of $1,627.93 will be achieved.
We could consider it luck if the price of Palladium were to decline to the mid-range level of $1,189.03 or the extreme target of $750.13. However, if the period from 1996 to 2003 is truly a precedent setting period then it would not be surprising to see Palladium decline to $750.13 as a normal reaction to the parabolic increase.
Posted in downside, Edson Gould, palladium, parabolic, Speed Resistance Lines
The price of palladium has increased significantly since 2016.
Naturally, parabolic peaks mean that the price is nearing a top. The downside prospects are the only clear consideration at this point in time. Below are the downside targets for the Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium Shares ETF (PALL) that we have generated based on the most recent peak. Continue reading
Posted in Edson Gould, palladium, parabolic, Speed Resistance Lines
On September 14, 2018, we said the following of the downside targets for AeroVironment (AVAV), when the stock was trading at $116.24:
“The conservative downside target of $62.26 is a lock in our view. To put this in perspective, AVAV would have to increase to $160.62 before the $62.26 level isn’t a normal ‘dip.’”
The numbers we based our downside targets on was with the assumption that AVAV could rise as high as $160.62, for a reasonable margin of error. Instead, AVAV peaked only two trading days later at $119.83 (the above chart has been adjusted to the peak).
The decline in AVAV has seen the stock fall as low as $49.54 on August 27, 2019, a drop of –58.65%. The most important element of the current decline is the ability of the stock price to remedy the preceding parabolic move. A drop of nearly-60% comes very close to fixing the previous disparity in the price.
From the August low, AVAV has managed to rally to the latest price at $61.81. The power of the reversal is highlighted in the fact that the stock price rose from the $49.54 level then achieved the $63.59 price. From the $63.59, the stock declined but could not achieve a price lower than $49.54.
The upside resistance levels are as follows:
Speculators (as opposed to Investors) should take these levels to be the points when the continuation of the upside will reverse to the prior low, as a re-test. Investors, basing their assessment on the fundamentals, can strategically enter positions breaking their intended investments in thirds or halves.
Posted in AVAV, Edson Gould, parabolic, Speed Resistance Lines, upside target
On November 25, 2018, we offered up the following downside target for Texas Pacific Land (TPL):
“The minimum downside target is in a range of $397.12 to $401.00. Going back to the period of 2007 to 2009, if TPL were to decline in a similar magnitude, the downside target from the $871.99 peak would be $244.16.”
From the peak of $871.99, TPL has declined to the intraday low of $409.00, which is exactly at our ascending $397.12 downside target.
The rebound has been exceptional but requires one last step in the process of confirming that the trend is actually up. In order for the trend to be CONFIRMED as up, the price of TPL needs to retest the $409 level and hold. Without holding at the $409 level, TPL would be expected to test the ascending $290.66 target, at minimum.
A review of the November 25, 2018 posting shows the 2003 to 2016 period when a retest of a a prior low was achieved.
Posted in parabolic, SRL, Texas Pacific Land, TPL
In the period from October 3, 2018 to November 23, 2018, the price of Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL) has declined from a recent high of $871.99 to the current level of $551.99, a decline of –36.69%. The question on everyone’s mind is, “how low will the price go?”
Using past as precedent, we looked at the Speed Resistance Lines [SRL] as outlined by Edson Gould in the period from 2003 to 2016. First, we remind our readers that under the extraordinary period of panic, from June 29, 2007 to March 9, 2009, TPL saw a decline of -72%.
Using the 2009 low, we see the $25.65 level as the pivot and the $230.82 level as the parabolic peak. Those points give us the following SRLs:
The entire decline was –53.87% and saw the price of TPL achieve the conservative downside target of $102.59 and with the passage of time the price almost accomplished the $89.77 mid-range target.
Fast forward to November 23, 2018 where we see the peak of TPL at $871.99. If we allow for only the conservative downside target to be achieved then TPL will go as low as $397.12. However, remember back in December 9, 2010 when we said, in an article titled “Real Estate: The Verdict is In,” “…we feel that real estate has a six to nine year stretch of rising prices or ‘trading’ in a range and decreased foreclosures.”
“…we feel that real estate has a six to nine year stretch of rising prices or ‘trading’ in a range and decreased foreclosures.”
Since our prescient article in 2010, in the face of shadow inventory claims that were supposed to keep prices down, we have seen a clear rising trend in the price of real estate and a significant decrease in foreclosures. Now, with the passage of 8 years, we believe that TPL will push the limits of downside action and achieve the extreme downside target as seen in the chart below. Continue reading
Posted in Edson Gould, parabolic, real estate, SRL, Texas Pacific Land, TPL
Below are the downside targets for Facebook (FB) based on the decline from the July 25, 2018 peak at $217.50. Continue reading
Posted in downside, Edson Gould, FB, parabolic
On September 13, 2018 when Tilray Inc. (TLRY) was trading at $118.00, we said:
“Below we outline the downside targets for both current price of $118 and $236 for when/if the stock doubles from the current price. The conservative downside target is fairly assured to occur in either case. From the $118 level, a decline to the $66.67 level would be a natural retest of the $77.89 level set on September 7, 2018.”
Since September 13, 2018, TLRY has increased as high as $300 on an intraday basis with a closing high of $214.06. From what we can tell, the runup has dissipated for now. On the downside, we see TLRY declining to the $102.92 target at minimum and it may achieve the the extreme downside target of $66.67 as outlined in our previous posting.
The nature of a parabolic rise is the manifestation of the price going to extremes. Speed Resistance Lines are the best measure of the extreme on the way down. It is the same going down as it is for going up. Therefore, we would not be surprised to see TLRY go as far down as $$42.42.
Posted in parabolic, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL, TLRY
According to Yahoo!Finance, ShotSpotter Inc. (SSTI) is, “…provides software-as-a-service based gunshot detection solutions for law enforcement officials and security personnel in the United States, South Africa, and internationally.”
ShotSpotter IPO’d on June 7, 2017 and was priced at $11. In the last 15 months, SSTI has managed to increase the share price +471%. Based on the closing price of $62.81, we have the following downside targets:
The downside target for SSTI are included in case the stock were to double for the current level. SSTI could increase to $85.65 and still be within range of the $35.06 downside target.
Posted in Edson Gould, parabolic, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL, SSTI
AeroVironment is described on Yahoo!Quotes as:
“AeroVironment, Inc. designs, develops, produces, supports, and operates a portfolio of products and services for government agencies and businesses.”
Below are the downside targets as a consequence of the parabolic rise that has occurred since the September 2015 low.
The conservative downside target of $62.26 is a lock in our view. To put this in perspective, AVAV would have to increase to $160.62 before the $62.26 level isn’t a normal “dip.”
Posted in AVAV, Edson Gould, parabolic, Speed Resistance Lines, SRL
On August 1, 2017, Lumber Liquidators (LL) soared +31% on news that the company had recorded their first quarter of earnings since 2015.
The staggering increase in the stock price was of particular interest to us as we had previously laid out the case that Lumber Futures contracts and Lumber Liquidators had a lot in common.
In a previous posting titled “Goldman Plays with Numbers,” we did a side-by-side comparison between Bitcoin and Ethereum in two different periods. The periods in question happens to have the same percentage change, approximately +13,400%.
As with the same percentage increase, it is reasonable to expect the same percentage decreased that followed. For the price of Bitcoin, it plunged –93.07% from June 8, 2011 to November 18, 2011. Below is our charting of three scenarios for downside risk to Ethereum.
Based on the work of Edson Gould, the conservative downside target for Ethereum is at $617.09 (blue line). However, due to the extremely volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, we have to expect that the extreme downside target is more than likely. The purpose of putting the conservative downside target at all is to demonstrate that it will be achieved after a given peak in price is established and the trend is clearly to the downside.
In addition to the conservative downside target, we have indicated the level Ethereum would be at if it lost –93% (red line) as Bitcoin did in the period from June 2011 to November 2011 (yeah, it took only five months). Such a decline in Ethereum would bring the price to $96.95. We don’t expect this but must be realistic about the prospects regardless of our own personal expectations.
Finally, we have included our own worst case scenario (green line) based on one half the difference between Gould’s extreme downside target at $461 and the –93% experienced by Bitcoin in 2011. This would bring the price of Ethereum to $279.31. Although this seems like a dire call for Ethereum, in reality it is not unusual to see an –80% decline in price from such extreme parabolic moves. Additionally, we don’t expect Ethereum to succumb to the same amount of pressure that Bitcoin did as the concept of blockchain technology is more salient to the general public today than it was in 2011.