Category Archives: Real Estate Analyst

The Bears Should Be Bullish on Real Estate

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Q & A on Real Estate

Q: “I would be curious as to your current view on real estate market in USA. As someone who is looking to purchase something in the Southeast USA I’m trying to grapple with now or wait.”

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Reader Q & A on Roy Wenzlick

Q: “What was the basis of the Roy Wenzlick analysis of real estate? What reasons or basis did he use to reach the conclusions and projections?”

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National Home Price Targets

Our first housing target from January 22, 2023 have been achieved.

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Real Estate Cycle

Below is our estimate of where we are in the Real Estate Cycle based on the work of Roy Wenzlick.

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Real Estate Cycle

The following is our general overview of where we are in the real estate cycle.

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On This Date: Roy Wenzlick

On this date in 1942, Roy Wenzlick, in his publication titled Real Estate Analyst, said the following:

"Leaving aside the equitable or inequitable nature of the freezing data in the various cities, what will be the over-all effect of rent control on values and on sales during the period of the emergency and the period that follows?

"According to Cyril De Mara, Rentals Administrator in Canada, rent control in Canada has brought about an increase in sales with increasing prices of single-family residences with increasing prices. Many persons not being able to rent the type of units they desired have purchased instead - giving the former tenants notice to vacate. In fact, this has continued to the-point that labor circles have complained that tenants are being forced out to make room for buyers. According to Mr. De Mara apartment sales have remained on the game level as a year ago, although sales prices of apartments have not increased. Speculative buyers have been replaced by persons desiring to have a fixed income."

Roy Wenzlick. Real Estate Analyst. "The Effects of Rent Control". May 27, 1942. page 137.

Real Estate: Nationwide Declines from 1910 to 1936

In a CNBC interview that took place on July 1, 2005, Ben Bernanke said:

“We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis.”

This claim is coming from a scholar who specialized in the Great Depression.  The Great Depression was an era of nationwide house price declines as represented in the red box below.

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Reviewing the work of Roy Wenzlick, we can see that house price declines were not the only measurable metric that real estate suffered on a nationwide basis.  Throughout the U.S., in more than 70 large cities we see that rents decreased, number of new dwellings decreased, office vacancies increased, farm land values decreased and real estate transfers decreased.   Below data and charts based on the work of Roy Wenzlick demonstrating nationwide trends in real estate. Continue reading