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Charles H. Dow, Father of Value Investing
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Inflation Proof Myth
What is Fair Value?
Issues with P-E Ratios
Beware of Gold Dividends
Gold Standard Myth
Lagging Gold Stocks?
No Sophisticated Investors
Dollar down, Gold up?
Problems with Market Share
Aim for Annualized Returns
Anatomy of Bear Market Trade
Don’t Use Stop Orders
How to Value Earnings
Low Yields, Big Gains
Set Limits, Gain More
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Historical Data
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1853-2019: Recession/Depression Index
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1910-1936: U.S. Real Estate
1910-2016: Union Pacific Corp.
1914-2012: Fed/GDP Ratio
1919-1934: Barron's Industrial Production
1920-1940: Homestake Mining
1921-1939: US Realty
1922-1930: Discount Rate
1924-2001: Gold/Silver Stocks
1927-1937: Borden Co.
1927-1937: National Dairy Products
1927-1937: Union Carbide
1928-1943: Discount Rate
1929-1937: Monsanto Co.
1937-1969: Intelligent Investor
1939-1965: Utility Stocks v. Interest Rates
1941-1967: Texas Pacific Land
1947-1970: Inventory-Sales Ratio
1948-2019: Profits v. DJIA
1949-1970: Dow 600? SRL
1958-1976: Gold Expert
1963-1977: Farmland Values
1971-2018: Nasdaq v. Gold
1971-1974: REIT Crash
1972-1979: REIT Index Crash
1986-2018: Hang Seng Index Cycles
1986-2019: Crude Oil Cycles
1999-2017: Cell Phone Market Share
2008: Transaction History
2010-2021: Bitcoin Cycles -
Interesting Read
Inside a Moneymaking Machine Like No Other
The Fuzzy, Insane Math That's Creating So Many Billion-Dollar Tech Companies
Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters
Forex Investors May Face $1 Billion Loss as Trade Site Vanishes
Why the oil price is falling
How a $600 Million Hedge Fund Disappeared
Hedge Fund Manager Who Remembers 1998 Rout Says Prepare for Pain
Swiss National Bank Starts Negative
Tice: Crash is Coming...Although
More on Edson Gould (PDF)
Schiller's CAPE ratio is wrong
Double-Digit Inflation in the 1970s (PDF)
401k Crisis
Quick Link Archive
Category Archives: Real Estate Analyst
The Bears Should Be Bullish on Real Estate
Posted in Purchase Application Index, real estate, Real Estate Analyst, Roy Wenzlick
Tagged members
Q & A on Real Estate
Q: “I would be curious as to your current view on real estate market in USA. As someone who is looking to purchase something in the Southeast USA I’m trying to grapple with now or wait.”
Reader Q & A on Roy Wenzlick
Q: “What was the basis of the Roy Wenzlick analysis of real estate? What reasons or basis did he use to reach the conclusions and projections?”
National Home Price Targets
Our first housing target from January 22, 2023 have been achieved.
Real Estate Cycle
Below is our estimate of where we are in the Real Estate Cycle based on the work of Roy Wenzlick.
Real Estate Cycle
The following is our general overview of where we are in the real estate cycle.
Posted in cycle analysis, Market cycles, Real Estate Analyst, Wenzlick
Tagged members
On This Date: Roy Wenzlick
On this date in 1942, Roy Wenzlick, in his publication titled Real Estate Analyst, said the following:
"Leaving aside the equitable or inequitable nature of the freezing data in the various cities, what will be the over-all effect of rent control on values and on sales during the period of the emergency and the period that follows?
"According to Cyril De Mara, Rentals Administrator in Canada, rent control in Canada has brought about an increase in sales with increasing prices of single-family residences with increasing prices. Many persons not being able to rent the type of units they desired have purchased instead - giving the former tenants notice to vacate. In fact, this has continued to the-point that labor circles have complained that tenants are being forced out to make room for buyers. According to Mr. De Mara apartment sales have remained on the game level as a year ago, although sales prices of apartments have not increased. Speculative buyers have been replaced by persons desiring to have a fixed income."
Roy Wenzlick. Real Estate Analyst. "The Effects of Rent Control". May 27, 1942. page 137.
Posted in 1942, On This Day, Real Estate Analyst, Wenzlick
Real Estate: Nationwide Declines from 1910 to 1936
In a CNBC interview that took place on July 1, 2005, Ben Bernanke said:
“We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis.”
This claim is coming from a scholar who specialized in the Great Depression. The Great Depression was an era of nationwide house price declines as represented in the red box below.
Reviewing the work of Roy Wenzlick, we can see that house price declines were not the only measurable metric that real estate suffered on a nationwide basis. Throughout the U.S., in more than 70 large cities we see that rents decreased, number of new dwellings decreased, office vacancies increased, farm land values decreased and real estate transfers decreased. Below data and charts based on the work of Roy Wenzlick demonstrating nationwide trends in real estate. Continue reading