Category Archives: SRCL

Nasdaq 100 Watch List: August 28, 2015

Performance Review

Below is the performance of the companies that appeared on our August 26, 2014 watch list.

symbol Name 2014 2015 % chg
MAT Mattel, Inc. 34.66 23.2 -33.06%
CA CA Technologies, Inc. 28.31 27.26 -3.71%
SPLS Staples, Inc. 11.06 13.75 24.32%
WFM Whole Foods Market, Inc. 38.495 32.85 -14.66%
XLNX Xilinx Inc. 41.78 42.27 1.17%
FOSL Fossil Group, Inc. 102.5 61.6 -39.90%
FAST Fastenal Company 45.73 38.69 -15.39%
DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. 53.51 76.73 43.39%
EXPD Expeditors Intl of Wash 41.64 49.66 19.26%
SRCL Stericycle, Inc. 119.06 142 19.27%

The list of stocks achieved an average gain of +0.07% compared to the Nasdaq 100 gain of +6.28%.

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This watch list achieved exceptional performance based on the analyst estimates as six of the ten stocks exceeded analyst expectations (MAT, WFM, DLTR, EXPD, SPLS, SRCL).

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Below are the Nasdaq 100 stocks worth your consideration along with the analyst estimates of price change for the coming year.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List: May 8, 2015

Performance Review

Below is the performance of the Nasdaq 100 watch list from May 9, 2014:

Symbol Name 2014 2015 % change
DISCA Discovery Comm. 37.33 31.33 -16.07%
BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. 61.31 71.44 16.52%
ISRG Intuitive Surgical, Inc. 353.06 494.32 40.01%
NTAP NetApp, Inc. 34.19 35.65 4.27%
EBAY eBay Inc. 50.54 58.82 16.38%
ALTR Altera Corp. 32.38 44.46 37.31%
WFM Whole Foods Market, Inc. 39.32 42.58 8.29%
SIRI Sirius XM Holdings Inc. 3.16 3.87 22.47%
VRSK Verisk Analytics, Inc. 60.53 73.66 21.69%
COST Costco Wholesale 115.39 145.88 26.42%
LMCA Liberty Media Corp. 34.18 37.93 10.97%
SRCL Stericycle, Inc. 113.90 134.01 17.66%
CERN Cerner Corporation 50.19 68.02 35.53%
CA CA Technologies 29.41 31.60 7.45%

The average gain of the entire list was +17.78% while the top five stocks (DISCA, BBBY, ISRG, NTAP, EBAY) gained an average of +12.22%.  This compares with the gain for the Nasdaq 100 index of +23.41% in the same 1-year time period.

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As has frequently been the case, analyst expectations were too optimistic for stocks on the far right (DISCA, CA, CERN, SIRI, NTAP) where the average gains of +10.73%.  Likewise, the view was too pessimistic for stocks on the far left (LMCA, ISRG, WFM, COST, BBBY) which averaged +20.44% in the above chart.

The absolute change in Liberty Media (LMCA) and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) was the most extreme.  Liberty Media saw its p/e ratio expand from 20 to 72 while ISRG’s p/e ratio increased from 26 to 39.  The increase in the p/e ratio should be expected with the increase in price.  However, value oriented investors would have overlooked these stocks simply because of the high p/e ratios and the expectation of lower earnings by analysts in 2014.

Watch List: May 8, 2015

Below are the Nasdaq 100 stocks of interest:

Continue reading

Nasdaq 100 Watch List: April 24, 2015

Performance Review

Below is the performance of our April 25, 2014 watch list.

Symbol Name 2014 2015 % chg
BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. 62.48 72.53 16.09%
CTRX Catamaran Corporation 38.95 59.56 52.91%
SIRI Sirius XM Holdings Inc. 3.12 3.96 26.92%
NTAP NetApp, Inc. 35.00 36.12 3.20%
ISRG Intuitive Surgical, Inc. 366.37 505.92 38.09%
DISCA Discovery Comm 39.14 32.71 -16.43%
VRSK Verisk Analytics, Inc. 57.81 72.68 25.72%
COST Costco Wholesale 115.01 148.12 28.79%
ALTR Altera Corp. 33.09 40.89 23.57%
SRCL Stericycle, Inc. 113.96 136.94 20.16%
CERN Cerner Corporation 49.51 73.32 48.09%
ROST Ross Stores Inc. 67.77 104.38 54.02%
MAT Mattel, Inc. 37.99 30.20 -20.51%
DLTR Dollar Tree, Inc. 51.36 81.14 57.98%

The average return for the entire list was +25.62% compared to the Nasdaq 100 index gaining +28.41% in the same period of time.  The top five stocks on our list (BBBY, CTRX, SIRI, NTAP, ISRG) gained +27.44% in the last year (excluding dividends).

image

As is common with our watch lists, a stock is being acquired at what we believe is a premium.  CTRX is being acquired by UnitedHealth (UNH), a Dow Jones Industrial Average component.  At the time of our watch list last year, CTRX was within 3% of the low.  Additionally, the announcement of the purchase by UNH followed the pattern of many companies buying the intended target after a gain over of +24% within the year and +177% within the last 5 years.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List: April 24, 2015

Below are the 9 Nasdaq 100 stocks that we think are worth your consideration:

Nasdaq 100 Watch List: March 30, 2012

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 20% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.

Symbol Name Price P/E EPS Yield Price/Book Div/Share % Chg from Low
FSLR First Solar, Inc. 25.05 -0.46 0.6 2.24%
EA Electronic Arts Inc. 16.49 -0.52 2.42 2.71%
CTRP Ctrip.com International Ltd. 21.64 19.29 1.12 2.74 3.00%
APOL Apollo Group Inc. 38.64 8.41 4.6 4.34 4.21%
CHRW CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. 65.49 25 2.62 2.00% 8.48 1.32 5.12%
VOD Vodafone Group plc 27.67 12.75 2.17 3.40% 1.07 0.95 13.82%
SRCL Stericycle, Inc. 83.64 31.09 2.69 5.95 14.50%
ORCL Oracle Corporation 29.16 15.28 1.91 0.80% 3.4 0.24 17.96%
RIMM Research In Motion Limited 14.7 3.46 4.25 0.69 18.07%
GMCR Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. 46.84 24.11 1.94 3.67 18.82%

Watch List Summary*

Update: December 16, 2011 Summary Stocks

Today we’re going to review the price action of the Nasdaq 100 stocks profiled in the summary section of our December 16, 2011 watch list.  First on the list was BMC Software (BMC), we indicated the following about BMC:

  • “If BMC were to replicate the percentage decline from the May 2008 top to the October 2008 low, the stock would decline to a price of $31.11.”
  • “The $40 level seems reasonable within the next year for BMC even though it is 20% above the current price.”

BMC declined from the December 16th price of $33.17 down to the low $31.62 on January 10, 2012.  The actual low of $31.62 was within 1.64% of the projected downside target.  Additionally, BMC managed to close above the $40 level starting on March 26, 2012.

Virgin Media (VMED) was the second stock listed in our summary section.  We projected an initial downside target of $18.29.  This never materialized as the stock reversed its decline at $20.52, we said the following regarding the VMED’s upside target:

  • “The next upside target for VMED is $25.07 which assumes the best case scenario.”

From December 19, 2011 to February 7, 2012 VMED rose as high as $24.49 but struggled to move any higher.  On February 8, 2012, VMED jumped to $25.27 and managed to close as high as $25.93 on February 14, 2012.  This was a gain of +23.77%  in a month and a half.

Ctrip.com (CTRP) was the last stock that we reviewed.  At the time, we said the following about CTRP:

  • “…on a pace to replicate the performance from the high in April 2008 to the low of January 2009 which equaled a loss of -72%. A similar decline in CTRP from the high of $50.57 would bring the price down to $14.16.”
  • “CTRP sits one penny below the 2nd Dow Theory support level of $23.11. Any further deviation below the current price almost ensures that the stock is destined for the $10 range.”

On March 28, 2012, CTRP declined significantly enough below the $22.44 level for us to believe that the stock would fall first to the $14.16 level and possibly to the $10 range.

*Stocks that are in our Watch List Summary section are those that we find the most compelling among all the stocks that appear in the watch list above.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List: March 23, 2012

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 20% of their respective 52-week lows. This Nasdaq 100 Watch List is strictly for the purpose of researching whether or not the companies have viable business models or are about to go out of business. These companies are deemed highly speculative unless otherwise noted.

Symbol
Company Price P/E EPS Yield P/B % from Low
FSLR First Solar, Inc. $26.11 0 -0.46 0 0.64 3.24%
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide $64.42 24.59 2.62 2 8.44 3.40%
CTRP Ctrip.com Int'l $22.83 20.37 1.12 0 2.93 3.68%
EA Electronic Arts Inc. $16.86 0 -0.52 0 2.49 5.05%
RIMM Research In Motion $13.66 3.22 4.25 0 0.7 9.72%
VOD Vodafone Group Plc $27.65 12.74 2.17 3.4% 1.07 13.74%
APOL Apollo Group, Inc. $42.41 12.02 3.53 0 4.1 14.37%
ORCL Oracle Corporation $28.55 14.96 1.91 0.8% 3.31 15.49%
SRCL Stericycle, Inc. $84.66 31.47 2.69 0 6.04 15.89%
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. $195.04 142.36 1.37 0 11.29 16.81%
VMED Virgin Media Inc. $23.98 63.95 0.38 0.7% 6.82 16.86%

Watch List Summary

Because we’re still in a bear market and have had significant divergence between the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports index, we believe there could be significant downside action in the near term.  With this in mind,  our first stock of interest is Oracle Corporation (ORCL). While the stock is slightly more than 15% above the 1-year low, it is necessary to plan your next purchase of this stock.

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When viewed from a Dow Theory perspective, the following are the downside targets from the current price:

  • $25.48 (fair value)
  • $21.82
  • $14.48

The low of December 2011 is the exact level of ORCL’s fair value based on Dow Theory.  If Oracle were to fall below the December 2011 low the next downside target is $21.82.  We wouldn’t put it past Oracle to decline to $14.48, however, a 3-part purchase plan with the first at $25.28 would be reasonable.  If you have $10,000 to invest in ORCL then we’d arrange the purchased in the following order:

  • 1st-$5,000 at $25.48
  • 2nd-$3,500 at $21.82
  • 3rd-$1,500 at $14.48

The next stock that we’re considering is Stericycle (SRCL).  Stericycle first appeared on our October 17, 2009 Nasdaq 100 Watch List.  At the time, Stericycle was trading at $52.12.  Since then, SRCL has soared as high as $95.71 on an intra-day basis, a gain of 83.63%.  Don’t be fooled by the fact the Stericycle sports a “high” price relative to the $52 level.  The point of a stock approaching a new low is that it transmits new information on the relative value.

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According to Dow Theory, Stericycle has the following downside targets:

  • $79.39
  • $71.23 (fair value)
  • $63.07
  • $46.75

We’d structure the purchase of Stericycle (SRCL) into two steps.  The first purchase at $71.23 (or lower) with 75% of the intended amount and the second purchase at $63.07 (or lower) with the remaining funds.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Watch List Summary

At the end of the week for September 17, 2010, the top performing stocks from our Nasdaq 100 list for August 15, 2010 are Oracle (ORCL) with a gain of 21.27%, Qualcomm (QCOM) with a gain of 12.07% and Computer Associates (CA) with a gain of 11.57%.
The worst performing stocks from our August 15th watch list are Intel (INTC) down –1.78%, Applied Materials (AMAT) down –1.34% and Activision (ATVI) down –0.46%.
The average gain for the watch list was 6.33%. Of the two stocks that we pointed out as being standouts from August 15th, Garmin (GRMN) exceeded the average return by climbing 9.57% while Paychex (PAYX) underperformed the average gain by rising 3.92%.
A distinction that needs to be made between this week’s list and our August 15th list is that we’ve ranking the companies on this list by those stocks nearest their 52-week low. Our previous list was ranked by those stocks that had the highest dividend yield and within 20% of their respective 52-week low.

Performance Review

The following is a total return (appreciation plus dividends) performance review of our Nasdaq 100 Watch List from September 11, 2009:
  • Stericycle (SRCL) up 44.48%
  • Genzyme (GENZ) up 25.54%
  • Pharmaceutical Product Development (PPDI) up 20%
  • Cephalon (CEPH) up 5.92%
As a group, the average gain for the stocks mentioned was 23.99%. This is contrasted by the Nasdaq 100 gain of 16.07% in the same period of time.

*chart does not reflect dividend reinvestment for PPDI


Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 20% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.

Symbol Name Price P/E EPS Yield P/B % from Low
PAYX Paychex, Inc. 25.95 19.67 1.32 4.80% 6.67 5.27%
INTC Intel Corporation 18.81 11.26 1.67 3.40% 2.3 6.87%
AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. 11.02 24.44 0.45 2.50% 2.03 7.33%
YHOO Yahoo! Inc. 13.89 22.77 0.61 N/A 1.59 7.34%
MXIM Maxim Integrated Products, Inc. 16.91 41.86 0.4 5.00% 2.15 7.91%
GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. 34.56 10.47 3.3 N/A 4.58 8.93%
ATVI Activision Blizzard, Inc 10.82 41.94 0.26 1.30% 1.21 8.96%
DELL Dell Inc. 12.45 15.74 0.79 N/A 3.92 9.80%
RIMM Research In Motion Limited 46.72 10.24 4.56 N/A 3.2 9.85%
AMGN Amgen Inc. 55.22 11.73 4.71 N/A 2.28 9.87%
DISH DISH Network Corporation 18.77 11.26 1.67 N/A N/A 10.02%
CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. 21.86 16.46 1.33 N/A 2.82 10.31%
XRAY DENTSPLY International Inc. 30.66 16.55 1.85 0.70% 2.6 10.45%
MSFT Microsoft Corporation 25.22 12 2.1 2.10% 4.76 10.95%
SPLS Staples, Inc. 19.49 17.26 1.13 1.80% 2.2 11.69%
PDCO Patterson Companies Inc. 27.15 14.67 1.85 1.50% 2.3 12.52%
SHLD Sears Holdings Corporation 66.83 27.38 2.44 N/A 0.9 12.87%
GOOG Google Inc. 490.15 21.29 23.03 N/A 3.77 13.03%
LIFE Life Technologies Corporation 46.51 29.91 1.56 N/A 1.97 13.16%
STX Seagate Technology. 11.16 3.55 3.14 N/A 1.95 13.41%
FLIR FLIR Systems, Inc. 27.24 18.52 1.47 N/A 3.25 13.50%
GRMN Garmin Ltd. 29.64 8.95 3.31 5.10% 2.21 13.52%
TEVA Teva Pharmaceutical Industries 53.48 19 2.82 1.20% 2.48 13.81%
FLEX Flextronics International Ltd. 5.55 15.72 0.35 N/A 2.26 14.20%
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation 61.29 21.93 2.8 1.30% 2.43 14.75%
HSIC Henry Schein, Inc. 56.35 15.82 3.56 N/A 2.31 14.77%
CERN Cerner Corporation 79.18 31.31 2.53 N/A 3.83 14.85%
CELG Celgene Corporation 55.25 29.99 1.84 N/A 5.11 15.06%
CA CA Inc. 20.44 13.43 1.52 0.80% 2.02 15.48%
ERTS Electronic Arts Inc. 16.26 N/A -1.06 N/A 1.96 15.63%
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor 36.25 N/A -3.53 N/A 9.01 16.00%
KLAC KLA-Tencor Corporation 31.05 25.31 1.23 3.30% 2.32 16.34%
STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc. 15.01 15.73 0.95 2.00% 1.58 16.45%
WCRX Warner Chilcott plc 22.75 11.2 2.03 N/A 2.82 16.55%
LOGI Logitech International S.A. 15.39 22.57 0.68 N/A 2.68 16.86%
CEPH Cephalon, Inc. 62.26 12.48 4.99 N/A 2.09 17.36%
URBN Urban Outfitters, Inc. 34.11 22.19 1.54 N/A 4.26 18.85%
FWLT Foster Wheeler AG. 24.19 10.8 2.24 N/A 3.46 18.99%
FISV Fiserv, Inc. 53.56 17.16 3.12 N/A 2.57 19.55%
JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, I 35.26 26.73 1.32 1.40% 7.56 19.73%
CTAS Cintas Corporation 27.71 19.64 1.41 1.70% 1.67 19.96%

Genzyme Corp: Value is Finally Being Recognized

There has been a lot of news about Genzyme (GENZ) being considered as a takeover candidate by Sanofi-Aventis (SNY). Typically, rumors are simply that, nothing more than prattle about a washed up company that has little or no life remaining. However, we have demonstrated that discussions of Genzyme (GENZ) being taken over are not so far fetched.
On October 17, 2009 (article link), we had only four companies that were on our Nasdaq 100 Watch List that was within 20% of their respective 52-week lows. This was in contravention to the overall market; which was racing higher every day. So compelling were the companies on the list that we felt it was necessary to give mini-profiles on their value propositions.
Genzyme (GENZ) was one such company that was on that list. We included Genzyme (GENZ) as the last company we profiled since we felt that it was “…a far superior value proposition.” This was despite the fact that Genzyme (GENZ) was the farthest from the new low among the companies on the list.
On October 30, 2009 (article link), we weren’t surprised that drug and medical device makers dominated our list of companies near a new low. In that posting to our site we said, “The continued undervaluation of these companies makes them prime targets for acquisition…” Genzyme (GENZ) was on the list and trading at $50.60. The performance of the stocks that were on the on the October 30 watch list is as follows:

The average gain for the group was 15.32% in 9 months. The worst performing stock has been Gilead Sciences (GILD) with a decline of 22.21%. The best performing stock has been Biogen (BIIB). Our sanguine view on Gilead Sciences (GILD) may be worth reviewing since it has fallen so much since October 30, 2009.
Genzyme has already indicated that they’re not going to accept the Sanofi-Aventis (SNY). This opens the door for competing bids, which should push the price up. Our view at this time is that Genzyme is strictly a speculation, at best, given the rise of nearly 33% since our mention of being a takeover candidate in October 2009.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 21% of their respective 52-week low. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and considerable due diligence.

Name (SYMBOL) Price P/E EPS Yield P/B Pct from Yr Low
Activision Blizzard, Inc (ATVI) $10.69 45.49 0.24 1.40% 1.25 7.65%
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) $54.69 11.61 4.71 0.00% 2.42 15.14%
Apollo Group, Inc. (APOL) $52.78 13.2 4 0.00% 6.18 1.11%
Biogen Idec Inc (BIIB) $50.13 15.18 3.3 0.00% 2.32 20.07%
Cephalon, Inc. (CEPH) $60.69 12.1 5.01 0.00% 1.98 15.49%
Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS) $17.42 0 -2.31 0.00% 2.28 10.96%
Genzyme Corporation (GENZ) $50.43 122.4 0.41 0.00% 1.83 7.09%
Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) $37.78 12.12 3.12 0.00% 4.74 0.61%
Logitech (LOGI) $14.74 40.72 0.36 0.00% 2.69 14.89%
QUALCOMM (QCOM) $37.30 19.89 1.88 2.00% 3 5.88%
Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY) $24.72 0 0 0.00% 0 4.39%
Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL) $54.23 18.5 2.93 1.20% 4.01 21.00%
Staples, Inc. (SPLS) $22.12 21.62 1.02 1.60% 2.39 18.16%
Stericycle, Inc. (SRCL) $56.70 26.83 2.11 0.00% 5.49 21.00%
Symantec Corporation (SYMC) $16.12 18.49 0.87 0.00% 2.89 15.39%
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $16.39 29.37 0.56 0.00% 1.84 17.32%

Watch List Summary

The stock that fell the most from last week's watch list was Apollo Group (APOL) which fell -3% for the week. Yahoo! (YHOO) gained the most for the week with 7.19%.

In all, the Nasdaq 100 Watch List of last week gained 1.15% as compared to the Nasdaq 100 index which gained 3.12%.  As quickly as Cintas (CTAS) got on the Watch List is as quickly as it came off the watch list.  Although CTAS is not on the watch list, I would still continue to follow the company for additional analysis and possible purchase at the right price. 
Email our team here.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 20% of the 52-week low. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy.  Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and extensive due diligence.

Symbol Name Trade P/E EPS (ttm) Yield P/B % from Low
GILD Gilead 45.7975 16.2 2.822 0 6.48 10.86%
GENZ Genzyme 52.8 34.3 1.54 0 1.81 12.13%
SRCL Stericycle 54.58 27 2.03 0 5.44 18.76%
QCOM QUALCOMM 42.17 33.8 1.25 1.60% 3.32 18.92%
APOL Apollo Group 63.14 15.8 4 0 7.13 19.61%
RYAAY Ryanair 29.75 N/A - 0 N/A 19.86%
This list is strictly for the purpose of researching whether or not the companies have viable business models or are about to go out of business. These companies are deemed highly speculative unless otherwise noted.
Email our team here.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 20% of the 52-week low.

Symbol Name Price P/E EPS (ttm) Yield P/B % from Yr Low
GILD Gilead Sciences 45.34 16.1 2.82 0 6.5 9.76%
GENZ Genzyme Corp. 53 34.4 1.54 0 1.8 12.55%
APOL Apollo Group 61.28 14.7 4.16 0 6.7 16.08%
QCOM QUALCOMM 41.83 33.6 1.246 1.60% 3.3 17.96%
FSLR First Solar, Inc. 116.5 15.5 7.53 0 3.6 18.02%
SRCL Stericycle, Inc. 54.5 26.9 2.03 0 5.5 18.58%

This list is strictly for the purpose of researching whether or not the companies have viable business models or are about to go out of business. These companies are deemed highly speculative unless otherwise noted.

Email our team here.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Symbol Name Trade P/E EPS Yield P/B Pct from Yr Low
QCOM QUALCOMM 38.95 31.3 1.25 1.70% 3.1 9.84%
ERTS Electronic Arts Inc. 17.77 N/A -2.3 N/A 2.3 13.18%
GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. 47.42 16.8 2.82 N/A 6.7 14.79%
FSLR First Solar, Inc. 115.5 15.4 7.53 N/A 3.6 17.04%
SRCL Stericycle, Inc. 54.49 26.9 2.03 N/A 5.5 18.56%
APOL Apollo Group, Inc. 63.02 15.2 4.16 N/A 6.8 19.38%
GENZ Genzyme 56.91 36.9 1.54 N/A 2 20.85%

Watch List Summary

This week on the Nasdaq 100 Watch List there were several notable changes. We had Stericycle (SRCL) decline -1.55% for the week. Stericycle (SRCL) had the largest decline of stocks that were on our watch list from the prior week. It appears that SRCL is on its way to declining to the previous low of $50.62. Since May 2009, SRCL has managed to trace out higher lows. SRCL is currently selling 29% below the 10-year average P/E ratio and 24% below the 10-year average price to cash flow ratio. Counteracting those positive features is that the company is selling almost 7% above the 10-year average price to book ratio. According to Morningstar, SRCL is a wide moat company or a company that a significant advantage that is challenging for new competitors to enter the industry (SRCL chart below).

The leading stock on the Nasdaq 100 in the past week has been First Solar (FSLR), which gained 6.37%. FSLR is selling at least 60% below the 3-year average price to book, price to cash, price to earnings, and price to sales. Lacking any 10-year data on First Solar (FSLR) my intuition tells me to consider this stock only in a small portion of the portfolio and that I’m willing to lose 100% of invested funds. FSLR seems like the Whole Foods (WFMI) of the energy sector, great concept but little in the way of sustainability.
Finally, the sector that appears to be on the move is the video game group. Both Electronic Arts (ERTS) and Activision Blizzard (ATVI) gained 3.80% and 3.99% respectively. The move higher was also confirmed by Gamestop Corp (GME), which rose just over 6% for the week.
In a footnote to our Dividend Achiever Watch List, we wish to bring to your attention the recent rumors that SuperValu (SVU) is being considered as a takeover candidate. Since our Investment Observation on January 6, 2010, the stock has run up 33.72%. SuperValu (SVU) sports a price to earnings ratio of 38 and a price to sales ratio that is half of its 5-year average. The price to book ratio is currently at the 5-year average. SVU seems a bit rich for me at this time however the performance of the stock since our January 6th article does not surprise our team.
The Nasdaq 100 Watch List is strictly for the purpose of researching whether or not the companies have viable business models or are about to go out of business. These companies are deemed highly speculative unless otherwise noted.
 -Touc

Email our team here.

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 21% of the 52-week low. This list is strictly for the purpose of researching whether or not the companies have viable business models or are about to go out of business. These companies are deemed highly speculative unless otherwise noted (view all.)

-Touc

Symbol Name Trade P/E EPS Yield P/B % from Low
Apollo Group
56.92
13.70
4.16
N/A
6.56
7.82%
Electronic Arts
16.75
N/A
-2.31
N/A
2.09
13.56%
First Solar
116.00
15.46
7.50
N/A
4.37
14.97%
Activision
10.79
125.47
0.09
1.39%
1.28
16.65%
Pharma Prod.
21.20
15.81
1.34
2.83%
1.87
17.97%
Stericycle
54.30
26.81
2.03
N/A
5.36
18.15%
Genzyme
55.97
31.91
1.75
N/A
1.94
18.86%
Gilead
48.84
17.31
2.82
N/A
6.84
20.24%

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 21% of the 52-week low. This list is strictly for the purpose of researching whether or not the companies have viable business models or are about to go out of business. These companies are deemed highly speculative unless otherwise noted.

Symbol Name Trade P/E EPS (ttm) Yield P/B % from Low
Electronic Arts
16.06
N/A
-4.06
N/A
1.97
8.88%
Apollo Grp
59.22
14.25
4.16
N/A
6.23
12.18%
First Solar
115.10
15.34
7.50
N/A
3.94
14.07%
Stericycle
51.36
25.36
2.03
N/A
5.17
15.18%
Gilead Sci.
47.01
16.66
2.82
N/A
6.47
15.73%
Genzyme Corp.
55.73
31.77
1.75
N/A
1.93
18.35%
QUALCOMM
38.84
31.17
1.25
1.80%
2.98
19.00%
Pharma Product
21.65
13.70
1.58
2.80%
1.92
20.48%
Activision
11.11
45.35
0.25
1.40%
1.24
20.63%
Video game makers Electronic Arts (ERTS) and Activision (ATVI) seemed to be in a race to the bottom until ATVI announced that its earnings beat expectations and that they are going to pay a dividend for the first time. On the news, ATVI moved higher while ERTS continues to languish within 9% of a new low. However, the fact that ERTS is so low and isn't promoting "positive" news makes the company more attractive.
Pharamceutical Product Development (PPDI) is again edging back on to our new low list. As you'll note on my 2009 transaction overview, PPDI was one of my most successful ventures from the Nasdaq 100 Watch List. Although not yet a Dividend Achiever, the company has increased the dividend every year for 4 years in a row. The company has solid financials and carries no debt.
Apollo Group (APOL) has remained on the Watch List for 4 months now. Provided that APOL doesn't fall below the November lows, this company may be worth investigating. With return on assets around 25% and return on equity at around 50% it would be difficult to ignore this special situation. However, my primary concern would be on the issues of long-term debt and quality of reported earnings.
As a group, Genzyme (GENZ), Stericycle (SRCL), Gilead (GILD), and PPDI are all companies that I would invest in, to varying degrees. The healthcare sector, as well as the water utilities on the Dividend Achiever Watch List are demonstrating their relative undervaluation against the overall market.

-Touc

Nasdaq 100 Watch List

Below are the Nasdaq 100 companies that are within 20% of the 52-week low. This list is strictly for the purpose of researching whether or not the companies have viable business models or are about to go out of business. These companies are deemed highly speculative unless otherwise noted. -Touc
Symbol Name Trade P/E EPS Yield P/B Pct from Yr Low
First Solar
114.19
15.22
7.50
N/A
3.93
13.17%
Apollo Group
59.93
14.42
4.16
N/A
6.45
13.53%
Gilead Sciences
46.38
16.44
2.82
N/A
6.43
14.18%
Activision Blizzard
10.21
41.67
0.25
N/A
1.14
15.63%
QUALCOMM
38.04
30.53
1.25
1.80%
2.99
16.54%
Electronic Arts
17.26
N/A
-4.06
N/A
2.08
17.02%
Genzyme
55.17
31.45
1.75
N/A
1.89
17.16%
Stericycle
52.00
26.58
1.96
N/A
5.76
17.22%

A View on the "Buy Low, Sell High" Concept

As the old investment adage goes, "buy low and sell high." However, the act of buying low has a few complications which hasn't been easily resolved. One problem is knowing when a stock's price is actually at a low price or not. Most people confuse the absolute level of a stock price with being low. For example, if a stock is selling for $2 then a person might think that this is a great price to acquire the shares. However, if $2 is the new high for the price and one year ago the old low was $0.25 then $2 is actually very high.

One way that the New Low Observer (NLO) has managed to isolate whether a stock is at a low price is by waiting until the stock is within 20% of the new low. This approach isn't a cure for what ails the average investor. However, it does allow average market participants the opportunity to investigate quality companies for potential price increases. The new low of a stock automatically implies that value has been created especially if the company in question can survive as a going concern. This is counter to most information coming out of the Wall Street media machine. Typically, analysts on Wall Street recommend stocks that have risen far above the low before initiating coverage on a stock.

While there are 4336 individual stocks that can be bought on American stock exchanges, NLO has determined that there are basically only 383 companies that warrant your attention. The first group of companies are known as the Dividend Achievers (excel list of companies). These 283 companies are tracked by Mergent's based on their ability to increase their dividends every year for over 10 years in a row as a minimum requirement. It goes without saying that these companies pay some kind of dividend with yields that range from over 5% to less than 1%.

The second major group of companies tracked by NLO are the constituents of the Nasdaq 100. In our earlier forms as Dividend Inc. and Arti Invest, we believed that only Dividend Achievers were worth tracking since the dividend payment was verifiable regardless of "accounting" inconsistencies that are commonly found with "other" companies. The performance of this approach has been well documented and proven quite profitable.

However, the reality of the stock market dictates that we widen our perspective on companies that might afford significant opportunity with reduced risk. We, at NLO, decided that the Nasdaq 100 was the next obvious choice. After all, most mutual funds are bound to invest in these companies regardless of their unwillingness to pay dividend income. Additionally, companies in the Nasdaq 100 have solid reputations with higher prospects for growth over the long term.

One recent example of the benefit of tracking and research companies posted on NLO, as opposed to those from the Wall Street media machine, is Stericycle (SRCL). SRCL last appeared on our Nasdaq 100 watch list on October 30th. After being on our watchlist since the July 24th initiation of our website, SRCL has managed to climb from the low of $47.76 to the most recent high of $58. This is an increase of 18% from the July low and 21% from the October low and 11.54% from the breakout above our watch list range of being within 20% of the 52-week low.

NLO can be easily contrasted with the recent short-term buy recommendation placed on SRCL by Zack's Investment Research. In a tiny blurb issued today, Zack's Investment Research indicated that SRCL's stock had been in an oversold state based on the stochastics which indicated or implied that the stock was likely to go higher in the near term.

Unfortunately, offering up information about SRCL long after the stock has risen by at least 18% doesn't serve the small investor. After all, isn't the mantra "buy low, sell high?" It is strange to note that no analysts covering SRCL (in the following link) issued a buy recommendation on the stock after February 2004, even though there has been tremendous opportunities to buy in October 2008, February 2009, May 2009 and October 2009.

SRCL is only one of the companies that has been on the NLO Nasdaq 100 Watchlist that performed exceptionally well after getting off the list. Below are other Nasdaq 100 companies and their performance since getting within 20% of the new low:

It should be noted that the above companies are almost the entire list of companies that have appeared on the Nasdaq 100 Watch List. So far, this implies that quality Nasdaq companies could be investigated for speculative opportunities near the new low. Hopefully this approach can provide a reasonable approach to buying low with the prospect of selling higher. Follow along with us as we continue to investigate the speculative opportunities of the Nasdaq 100. -Touc