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Investor Education
Market Return After Exceptional Years
Dollar Cost Averaging Tool
Dow Theory: The Formation of a Line
Dividend Capture Strategy Analysis
Golden Cross – How Golden Is It?
Debunked – Death Cross
Work Smart, Not Hard
Charles H. Dow, Father of Value Investing
It's All About the Dividends
Dow Theory: Buying in Scales
How to Avoid Losses
When Dividends are Canceled
Cyclical and Secular Markets
Inflation Proof Myth
What is Fair Value?
Issues with P-E Ratios
Beware of Gold Dividends
Gold Standard Myth
Lagging Gold Stocks?
No Sophisticated Investors
Dollar down, Gold up?
Problems with Market Share
Aim for Annualized Returns
Anatomy of Bear Market Trade
Don’t Use Stop Orders
How to Value Earnings
Low Yields, Big Gains
Set Limits, Gain More
Ex-Dividend Dates -
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Historical Data
1290-1950: Price Index
1670-2012: Inflation Rate
1790-1947: Wholesale Price Cycle
1795-1973: Real Estate Cycle
1800-1965: U.S. Yields
1834-1928: U.S. Stock Index
1835-2019: Booms and Busts
1846-1895: Gold/Silver Value
1853-2019: Recession/Depression Index
1860-1907: Most Active Stock Average
1870-2033: Real Estate Cycles
1871-2020: Market Dividend Yield
1875-1940: St. Louis Rents
1876-1934: Credit-New Dwellings
1896-1925: Inflation-Stocks
1897-2019: Sentiment Index
1900-1903: Dow Theory
1900-1923: Cigars and Cigarettes
1900-2019: Silver/Dow Ratio
1901-2019: YoY DJIA
1903-1907: Dow Theory
1906-1932: Barron's Averages
1907-1910: Dow Theory
1910-1913: Dow Theory
1910-1936: U.S. Real Estate
1910-2016: Union Pacific Corp.
1914-2012: Fed/GDP Ratio
1919-1934: Barron's Industrial Production
1920-1940: Homestake Mining
1921-1939: US Realty
1922-1930: Discount Rate
1924-2001: Gold/Silver Stocks
1927-1937: Borden Co.
1927-1937: National Dairy Products
1927-1937: Union Carbide
1928-1943: Discount Rate
1929-1937: Monsanto Co.
1937-1969: Intelligent Investor
1939-1965: Utility Stocks v. Interest Rates
1941-1967: Texas Pacific Land
1947-1970: Inventory-Sales Ratio
1948-2019: Profits v. DJIA
1949-1970: Dow 600? SRL
1958-1976: Gold Expert
1963-1977: Farmland Values
1971-2018: Nasdaq v. Gold
1971-1974: REIT Crash
1972-1979: REIT Index Crash
1986-2018: Hang Seng Index Cycles
1986-2019: Crude Oil Cycles
1999-2017: Cell Phone Market Share
2008: Transaction History
2010-2021: Bitcoin Cycles -
Interesting Read
Inside a Moneymaking Machine Like No Other
The Fuzzy, Insane Math That's Creating So Many Billion-Dollar Tech Companies
Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Letters
Forex Investors May Face $1 Billion Loss as Trade Site Vanishes
Why the oil price is falling
How a $600 Million Hedge Fund Disappeared
Hedge Fund Manager Who Remembers 1998 Rout Says Prepare for Pain
Swiss National Bank Starts Negative
Tice: Crash is Coming...Although
More on Edson Gould (PDF)
Schiller's CAPE ratio is wrong
Double-Digit Inflation in the 1970s (PDF)
401k Crisis
Quick Link Archive
Category Archives: Uncategorized
2 Weeks In Thailand
Thailand is one of the larger economies in Asia coming in at #10 and is #2 in South East Asia region. Over the holiday, I spent 2 weeks in Thailand and wanted to share few observations during my trip.
U.S. Dollar Goes a Long Way in Thailand
One of the benefit of traveling there is the U.S. Dollar has tremendous purchasing power in that region of the world. Because of the recent rise in interest rates in the U.S., the Dollar rose in relation to Thai Baht. In 5 years, the Dollar gained nearly 10%. Our delicious meal for 4 cost typically around $10 – $12! Pictured below is $2.50 Pad Thai at a restaurant.
Pad Thai $2.50
Economic Narrative Is Always Negative
Regardless of where I go or who I speak to, the narrative of the economy is always negative. This was my fifth time visiting this beautiful country and that narrative never changed. I’ve asked Taxi drivers, restaurant operators, or successful business operators, the conversation always steer toward low economic output. However, a lot of the focus this time was around inflation. I find the Thai narrative of bad economy fascinating and leads me to believe it is part of human psychology to lean on the negative side.
Stock Market – SET Index
Turning our attention to the stock market in Thailand or the SET Index. Perhaps the narrative fits the reality when compared to the stock market. For 5 years, the index declined 11%. This is much better than the Hang Seng (Hong Kong) which declined a whopping -40% over the same period. Nifty 50 (India) doubled in the last 5 years. Take the SET Index and apply that to our Price Momentum Indicator and we see a better buying opportunity ahead (see screenshot below). Our PMI showed that when price reach lower ranges (green dotted line), a purchase with a holding time frame of 3 years produced positive returns 88% of the time with annualized gain of 9%.
Posted in Uncategorized
Transaction Alert
We executed the following transaction(s): Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Market Signals
Below is an interesting find that may prove helpful for determining if the market is really a buy. Continue reading
Semiconductor Index Price Momentum $SOX
Below is a chart of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index from 1996 to 2022, reflecting Price Momentum data.
Paramount Global 10-Year Targets $PARA
Below are the valuation targets for Paramount Global (PARA) for the next 10 years. Continue reading
U.S. Dividend Watch List: November 12, 2021
We saw major indexes reach all-time high prior week which drive our NLO indicator ever slightly higher. The bullish trend remain even after slight pull back later in the week. Below are companies on our watch list for this week. Continue reading
U.S. Dividend Watch List: October 29, 2021
The market had a tremendous run this past year. Year-over-year, the S&P rose 40% with some corrections along the way. Our watch list from prior year also had an outstanding outcome. Low P/E strategy shot up 200% driven mainly by an acquisition of Meredith (MDP) by IAC’s Dotdash. MDP gained 421% in one year. Another name that helped propelled the Low P/E and Low P/B strategy was State Auto Financial (STFC) which rose 316% in a year after Liberty Mutual agree to acquire the company.
U.S. Dividend Watch List: October 29, 2021
The Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500, and Nasdaq closed the week at all-time high. As bullish indicator, Dow Jones Transport is a fraction of percentage from its all-time high as well and setting up for Dow Theory up trend confirmation. Below is a watch list containing companies to watch. Continue reading
2009-2021: MarketAxess Holdings Altimeter
In theory, MarketAxess (MKTX) is nearly undervalued based on Edson Gould’s Altimeter. However, 2018 and 2020 have managed to show us lower levels.
Posted in Uncategorized
U.S. Dividend Watch List: June 11, 2021
The week closed with major indexes approaching record level. S&P 500 ended the week at record high while the Dow and Nasdaq are less than 1% away. The number of companies on our watch list remain stable at 34, 9 of which are Dividend Aristocrat and 22 are Dividend Achiever. Continue reading
NLO Market Indicator–May 14, 2021
It was a volatile week for the market. Despite 3 major indexes (S&P 500, DJI, JIT) reaching all-time high and confirming Dow Theory bull market. There are some sign to keep a look out for. Below is the market indicator at the end of last week. Continue reading
Posted in Market Ratio, NLO Market Indicator, NLO Market Score, Uncategorized
Tagged members
NLO Market Score – Our Proprietary Market Timing Tool
The concept of a market indicator or market timing tool isn't a new concept. While compounding is THE most power force in investing, market timing tools come in a close second. As the old saying, "don't tell me what to buy, tell me when to buy".
Our team has developed a proprietary market timing tool which we are calling NLO Market Score. In its simplest form, the tool assigns a score ranging from -6 to +6 to the market and is similar to market breath.
For example, the market score reached -6 on March 12, 2020 when the S&P 500 was at 2,481. Since then, the market have risen nearly +50% in less than a year.
However, the 2008 bear market pushed the score to -6 early in October thus leaving little upside if you did a one time purchase. No single (or multiple) market indicator will be accurate enough to call market bottom and that goes for ours as well. That being said, we've back tested the indicator with a reasonable success rate which we define as any positive return.
Below, in table A, we have summarize the outcome of purchasing the S&P 500 when market score reaches -6. In table B, we show the details of the trade/transaction.
Table A:
Table B:
A close observation and you will notice that there are purchase dates within days of each other. To adjust for that, we have taken only the first indication that occurs within that year. The result are summarized in tables C and D.
Table C
Table D
As a long-term holder of equities, we are pleased with an extreme high success rate coupled with above average (>10%) annualized return.