Category Archives: upside target

Imperial Brands Upside Resistance Targets

Posted on July 12, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Below are the upside resistance targets for Imperial Brands (IMBBY): Continue reading →

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Boeing Upside Resistance Targets

Posted on April 15, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Below are the upside resistance targets for Boeing (BA):

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The upside resistance targets seem daunting.  We’ve seen bigger and better companies bailed out and not able to recover from these levels.  There is always a first.

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Simon Property Group SRL

Posted on April 9, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Markets are built on precedent.  For this reason, we will display the downside targets in two prior periods to establish the history for Simon Property Group before getting to the most recent decline.  We also provide the upside resistance targets for those hoping to “play” the move to the upside.

To get yourself familiar with the work of Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines, we recommend that you review the our article titled “The Power and Lesson of Speed Resistance Lines” dated February 4, 2018.  Since that article, approximately 90% of the Speed Resistance Lines that we have run have come to fruition.

Simon Property Group Downside Targets

1993-2000

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The mid-range target is a point to watch as it generally defines the balance of the direction of the stock price.  Notice how SPG managed to rise and then decline below the prior low.

1999-2009

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As should be expected, the decline in the run from the 2007 peak was almost down to the prior starting point as the decline was generally a result of the malinvestment in the real estate sector.  As noted in the chart, SPG managed to not replicated the prior cycle of decline from 1998 to 1999.  However, it did get pretty close.

2008-2020

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The decline from the 2016 peak should not be unfamiliar since it is almost a replication of the decline from 2007 to 2009.  If the current decline were to replicated the 2007-2009 decline, it would bring the price of SPG to $34.16.  This number is not too far from the $36.04 level indicated by the price-to-dividend ratio as outlined in the 10-Year Target that was previously posted.

Upside Resistance Targets

2016-2020

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Assuming that the $34.16 price is the downside target and investors are willing to accept such a risk, the upside targets are very compelling.  The first upside target is $135.81, or nearly 100% above the current price of $70.  However, anyone willing to participate in the potential decline to $34.16 need to accept that rising to $197.31 is still within the declining trend which could conceivably result in a decline back to the $44.01 price.

Our primary concern is with downside risk and therefore if a real estate investment trust must be bought at this time then we’d prefer a position in the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund (VNQ) over individual names where the volatility is far above our tolerance levels.

see also: U.S. Realty from 1918 to 1945

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WorkDay Upside Resistance Targets

Posted on February 9, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Based on the decline from the peak at $224.30, WorkDay Inc. (WDAY) has the following upside resistance levels:

  • $188.30
  • $200.14
  • $212.42

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Based on the low of $152.29, WorkDay Inc. increased beyond the initial upside resistance target of $188.30 and then broke down below that level.  However, the true test of any momentum is the ability to rise and then fall without going below the prior low, in this case $152.29.

Each of the levels indicated are critical resistance levels that should see a material decline in the stock price.  Exceeding each level lends support to the stock price going to the next level.  For this reason, we expect that the $212.42 price should see some resistance due to the rapid run-up from the December 13, 2019 low. In this case, resistance means a vacillation between the descending $212.42 and $200.34 price levels.

A rise to $224.30 means that a new bull run is in the cards and should be hedged according.

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AeroVironment: Upside Resistance Targets

Posted on December 4, 2019 by | Leave a comment

On September 14, 2018, we said the following of the downside targets for AeroVironment (AVAV), when the stock was trading at $116.24:

“The conservative downside target of $62.26 is a lock in our view.  To put this in perspective, AVAV would have to increase to $160.62 before the $62.26 level isn’t a normal ‘dip.’”

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The numbers we based our downside targets on was with the assumption that AVAV could rise as high as $160.62, for a reasonable margin of error.  Instead, AVAV peaked only two trading days later at $119.83 (the above chart has been adjusted to the peak).

The decline in AVAV has seen the stock fall as low as $49.54 on August 27, 2019, a drop of –58.65%.  The most important element of the current decline is the ability of the stock price to remedy the preceding parabolic move.  A drop of nearly-60% comes very close to fixing the previous disparity in the price.

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From the August low, AVAV has managed to rally to the latest price at $61.81.  The power of the reversal is highlighted in the fact that the stock price rose from the $49.54 level then achieved the $63.59 price.  From the $63.59, the stock declined but could not achieve a price lower than $49.54.

The upside resistance levels are as follows:

  • $84.69
  • $96.63
  • $108.23

Speculators (as opposed to Investors) should take these levels to be the points when the continuation of the upside will reverse to the prior low, as a re-test.  Investors, basing their assessment on the fundamentals, can strategically enter positions breaking their intended investments in thirds or halves.

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Review: GE Upside Targets

Posted on November 22, 2019 by | Leave a comment

History:

  • On January 21 2018, when General Electric (GE) was trading around $16, we said, “the speed at which the current decline is taking place indicates that sentiment will push the stock to the $5.27 price and the elimination from the Dow Jones Industrial Average is eminent.”
  • On December 12, 2018, General Electric (GE) achieved a closing low of $6.45, 22% above our estimated downside target.
  • On January 1, 2019, when General Electric was trading around $7.25, we said, “…now is the time to consider the upside resistance targets.  The above chart lays bare the expectations for an upside move.” We also said, “The year 2019 could be forgiving to GE…” This was 12.40% above the December 12, 2018 low.
  • On November 21, 2019, the closing price of General Electric stood at $11.59 or +59.86% above the January 1, 2019 level. This was 84.44% of the entire run from the December 12, 2018 closing low.

Revised GE Upside Targets

After demonstrating a history of consistency, in terms of the general trend in the stock price of General Electric, we must revise the Speed Resistance Lines that were issued in January 1, 2019 to more accurately reflect the changes that have occurred in the last 11 months.

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The upside resistance targets are as follows:

  • $19.05 (conservative target)
  • $23.33 (mid-range target)
  • $27.48 (extreme target)

It would be a major coup for the price of General Electric to exceed the conservative upside resistance target at $19.05.  For now, we will reiterate that almost all stocks achieve the conservative targets through either the passage of time or increase/decrease in price.

As was said in January 2019, “GE could achieve all of the designated upside resistance targets and still be in a declining trend.”

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Shanghai Composite: Upside Targets

Posted on October 5, 2019 by | Leave a comment

Below are the upside resistance targets for the Shanghai Composite Index for both the short and long-term moves.

Short-Term Targets

Based on the price action since January 2019, the Shanghai Composite Index has conformed to the upside resistance targets ranging from 3,012.38 to 3,378.93.

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The short-term upside resistance target determines market sentiment for achieving the 3,559.47.  So far, the market appears on course to achieve a re-test of the prior low at 2,464.36.  The theory of the re-test is known as a double top, or in this case a double bottom, as described by Charles H. Dow in 1901.

"Another method is what is called the theory of double tops. Records of trading show that in many cases when a stock reaches top it will have a moderate decline and then go back again to near the highest figures. If after such a move, the price again recedes, it is liable to decline some distance (Dow, Charles H. Wall Street Journal. July 20, 1901.)."

The expectation should be that after obtaining a new low or a new peak, the price will trend in the opposite direction and then re-test the prior extreme level.  In this case, it is the 2,464.36.  This makes the 3,012.38 upside resistance level a reasonable level for expectation on the way to the down from the current level as diagramed in the chart above.

Long-Term Targets

The most important factor to watch for is the long-term trend in the Shanghai Composite.  The chart below outlines the long-term prospects for the index. Continue reading →

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Crude Oil: Price Targets

Posted on June 15, 2019 by | Leave a comment

Below are the upside and downside targets based on the work of Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines. Continue reading →

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Uniti Group Upside Resistance Targets

Posted on February 15, 2019 by | Leave a comment

Below are the remaining upside resistance targets for Uniti Group (UNIT).

  • $26.59
  • $29.64
  • $32.70

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The next upside target is $26.59 for UNIT.  However, at the moment, UNIT is showing a capitulation to the descending trend as seen with the peaks from March 2017 to July 2017 and June 2018 to the present. 

A break above the descending $26.59 level would be a strong indication for upside action to retest the $32.70 level.

See also: Our 10-Year price targets (undervalue, fair value, and overvalued levels) of Canadian and American dividend paying stocks (found here).

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DJIA: Upside Targets Update

Posted on January 15, 2019 by | Leave a comment

On January 1, 2019, we provided upside and downside targets for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.  Below is the update to the upside targets for the DJIA. Continue reading →

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DJIA Targets: January 4, 2019

Posted on January 6, 2019 by | Leave a comment

Below are the upside resistance levels to watch. Continue reading →

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Dow 2019 Technical Targets

Posted on January 1, 2019 by | Leave a comment

Downside Targets Continue reading →

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Bitcoin: December 2018

Posted on December 14, 2018 by | Leave a comment

After twelve months, the extent of the euphoria and devastation has been wrought on the price of Bitcoin.  Out of necessity, it is necessary to review what has happened since our January 17, 2018 posting (when Bitcoin was at $11,141) on the topic as this was the last assessment that was the most accurate, so far.  In that posting, we said the following:

“Anyone willing to participate in Bitcoin should be willing to accept that the price could easily decline –70%, as has been the average of all previous Bitcoin busts (found here).  Anyone who participates in anything other than Bitcoin should expect a minimum –90% to –99% decline if, at the same time, Bitcoin declines –70% or more.

“We see the current decline consistent with all prior crashes in Bitcoin and therefore see no reason to panic if you are out already.  Alternatively, if you are currently in Bitcoins, you should be willing to accept that the price routinely declines to the levels mentioned above.”

Again, this was that last best assessment we had. After this posting, we’ve had others that can be found in our Bitcoin archive which have been mostly accurate and a couple that have been dead wrong.  Below is the update on the topic of Bitcoin. Continue reading →

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Tilray: Review and Targets

Posted on December 13, 2018 by | Leave a comment

On September 13, 2018, when Tilray (TLRY) was trading at $118.00, we offered downside targets for $118 and $236 price points.  Unsurprisingly, TLRY closed at a price of $214 on September 19, 2018.  At the time we said:

“The conservative downside target is fairly assured to occur in either case.”

The conservative downside target at $118 was $66.67 and at $236 was $102.92.

On September 25, 2018, when TLRY was trading at $114.00, after the stock traded as low as $99.50, we gave upside targets of $156.78, $176.26, and $195.16.  Our closing commentary was as follows:

“Upside retests determine if the price of the stock will continue on the move beyond $214.06.  This is where speculators make their money, on the prospects of an +86% increase.”

TLRY made it as high as $165.64 on a closing basis.  The failure to achieve $176.26 target suggested that the downside targets from the closing price of $214.06 would be the extreme downside target of $78.67, as noted in the September 13, 2018 posting.

Currently, TLRY trades below $75.  Although the extreme downside targets have been acheived, there are indications that TLRY will retest the pivot level at $34.

Downside Targets

The downside risk from the current price, is as follows:

  • $60.72
  • $47.36
  • $34.00

Simply by declining to $60.72, speculators should build in plans for TLRY to go to the $34.00 price point.

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ShotSpotter Upside Resistance Levels

Posted on November 29, 2018 by | Leave a comment

Review

On September 16, 2018, when ShotSpotter (SSTI) was trading at $62.81, we said the following:

“Based on the closing price of $62.81, we have the following downside targets:

  • $35.06
  • $28.55

  • $22.05”

The updated charting of the downside targets shows that SSTI managed to decline as low as the mid-range target of $28.55, as seen in the chart below.

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We understand that the decline in the stock was merely coincidental.  However, we do take some satisfaction in having a high level of coincidence with a surprising number of stocks that experience parabolic moves to the upside. 

In the following assessment, we attempt to highlight the upside targets that most likely will experience resistance on the way back to the prior closing high of $63.12.

Upside Resistance Levels

Based on the decline from the peak at $63.12, SSTI has the following upside resistance levels:

  • $46.55
  • $52.18
  • $57.65

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Our experience is that most investors are anticipating a retest of the previous peak as their investment goal.  However, in order to get to that goal, the stock price must run the gauntlet of exceeding the indicated upside targets.  Each of the levels indicated are critical resistance levels that should see a material decline in the stock price.  Exceeding each level lends support to the stock price going to the next level.

A reassessment of the technicals is provided upon request if the stock exceeds $63.12.

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