Category Archives: WAG

Below is a comparison of the performance of Apple (AAPL) against Walgreen (WAG) from the IPO of Apple back in December 1980. Circled in red is the total return of Walgreen at +13,636.70% versus +9,991.43% for Apple.

While there is no doubt that Apple has been a great investment in the last ten years, on a relative basis, Apple has been dead money from the IPO in 1980 to 2003. Walgreen on the other hand, by virtue of the dividend and consistent growth, has generated exceptional total returns from the word “go”.

This is the focus of our U.S. Dividend Watch List which is the foundation of our investment strategy.

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Transaction Alert: Sold WAG, XEC and UNM at the Market

Posted on October 17, 2012 by nlo-admin | Leave a comment

Today we sold the principal portion in shares of Walgreen (WAG), Cimarex (XEC) and Unum (UNM).

On July 16 ,2012, we posted a transaction alert indicating that we would buy Unum (UNM) the following day (found here). The gain in the stock has been +10.43%. The annualized rate of return is 48.76%.
On July 17, 2012, we posted a transaction alert indicating that we bought Cimarex (XEC) at the market (found here). The gain has been +16.70%. The annualized rate of return is 85.47%.
On October 14, 2011 (found here), Walgreen topped our U.S. Dividend Watch list which prompted our research and purchase of the stock. The gain in WAG has been 9.70%. The annualized rate of return is 9.70%.

All of the stocks sold comprised 22% of our portfolio. We continue to hold shares of the companies (profit portion) allowing us to slowly build a well diversified portfolio and continue to see capital appreciation and compounding of the income.

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U.S. Dividend Watch List: October 12, 2012

Posted on October 14, 2012 by nlo-admin | Leave a comment

Below are the 50 companies on our U.S. Dividend Watch List that are within 11% of their respective 52-week lows. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and rigorous due diligence.

Symbol	Name	Price	% Yr Low	P/E	EPS (ttm)	Dividend	Yield	Payout Ratio
INTC	Intel Corp.	21.48	0.38%	9.10	2.36	0.90	4.19%	38%
ABM	ABM Industries, Inc.	18.12	1.51%	18.68	0.97	0.58	3.20%	60%
EXPD	Expeditors International	34.78	1.70%	20.70	1.68	0.56	1.61%	33%
IBKC	IBERIABANK Corp.	45.25	1.78%	20.38	2.22	1.36	3.01%	61%
CLC	Clarcor Inc.	44.69	2.92%	18.39	2.43	0.54	1.21%	22%
ERIE	Erie Indemnity Company	63.20	3.39%	22.49	2.81	2.21	3.50%	79%
WGL	WGL Holdings, Inc.	39.09	3.82%	19.84	1.97	1.60	4.09%	81%
JW-A	John Wiley & Sons Inc. CL 'A'	45.06	4.21%	13.86	3.25	0.80	1.78%	25%
MATW	Matthews International Corp.	29.13	4.48%	13.12	2.22	0.36	1.24%	16%
ETP	Energy Transfer Partners L P	42.61	3.85%	9.05	4.71	3.58	8.40%	76%
CRR	Carbo Ceramics, Inc.	64.49	5.14%	11.29	5.71	1.08	1.67%	19%
HRL	Hormel Foods Corp.	28.83	5.68%	16.02	1.80	0.60	2.08%	33%
PBI	Pitney Bowes Inc	13.36	5.70%	3.91	3.42	1.50	11.23%	44%
CAT	Caterpillar Inc.	82.82	5.84%	9.26	8.94	2.08	2.51%	23%
OMI	Owens & Minor, Inc.	29.06	6.17%	15.79	1.84	0.88	3.03%	48%
VVC	Vectren Corp.	28.78	6.55%	14.84	1.94	1.40	4.86%	72%
ED	Consolidated Edison, Inc.	59.83	6.71%	16.53	3.62	2.42	4.04%	67%
SON	Sonoco Products Co.	30.59	6.92%	15.53	1.97	1.20	3.92%	61%
STBA	S&T BanCorp., Inc.	16.85	7.46%	14.28	1.18	0.60	3.56%	51%
SRCE	1st Source Corp.	22.06	7.56%	11.55	1.91	0.68	3.08%	36%
MCD	McDonald's Corp.	92.51	7.67%	17.39	5.32	3.08	3.33%	58%
BUSE	First Busey Corp.	4.76	7.69%	19.04	0.25	0.16	3.36%	64%
APD	Air Products & Chemicals, Inc.	82.00	7.74%	13.00	6.31	2.56	3.12%	41%
UTX	United Technologies Corp.	75.96	7.88%	15.92	4.77	2.14	2.82%	45%
UNM	Unum Group	19.75	8.04%	26.69	0.74	0.52	2.63%	70%
ANAT	American National Insurance	72.01	8.16%	10.65	6.76	3.08	4.28%	46%
PNY	Piedmont Natural Gas Co., Inc.	31.28	8.24%	20.05	1.56	1.20	3.84%	77%
VLY	Valley National BanCorp.	9.85	8.24%	14.49	0.68	0.65	6.60%	96%
CWT	California Water Service	18.58	8.40%	21.11	0.88	0.63	3.39%	72%
SJW	SJW Corp.	24.59	8.90%	21.76	1.13	0.71	2.89%	63%
LM	Legg Mason, Inc.	24.39	9.08%	22.58	1.08	0.44	1.80%	41%
FDS	FactSet Research Systems Inc.	93.28	9.25%	22.64	4.12	1.24	1.33%	30%
MDU	MDU Resources Group Inc.	21.48	9.31%	19.01	1.13	0.67	3.12%	59%
AMAT	Applied Materials Inc.	10.90	9.33%	13.13	0.83	0.36	3.30%	43%
BDX	Becton, Dickinson and Co.	76.62	9.38%	13.88	5.52	1.80	2.35%	33%
GD	General Dynamics Corp.	66.10	9.53%	9.69	6.82	2.04	3.09%	30%
RBCAA	Republic BanCorp., Inc.	20.49	9.87%	4.06	5.05	0.66	3.22%	13%
RLI	RLI Corp.	68.06	10.02%	13.24	5.14	1.28	1.88%	25%
SFNC	Simmons First National Corp.	24.83	10.11%	16.12	1.54	0.80	3.22%	52%
NJR	New Jersey Resources Corp.	45.27	10.12%	20.03	2.26	1.60	3.53%	71%
RAVN	Raven Industries, Inc.	27.68	10.32%	18.96	1.46	0.42	1.52%	29%
PPL	PP&L Corporation	29.44	10.34%	10.01	2.94	1.44	4.89%	49%
DOV	Dover Corp.	55.33	10.35%	12.03	4.60	1.40	2.53%	30%
SJI	South Jersey Industries, Inc.	51.49	10.68%	16.19	3.18	1.61	3.13%	51%
JCI	Johnson Controls Inc	25.87	10.70%	10.31	2.51	0.72	2.78%	29%
MSEX	Middlesex Water Company	19.23	10.71%	24.04	0.80	0.74	3.85%	93%
CAH	Cardinal Health, Inc.	40.89	10.78%	13.11	3.12	0.95	2.32%	30%
STR	Questar Corp.	20.20	10.81%	17.12	1.18	0.68	3.37%	58%
EMR	Emerson Electric Co.	48.35	10.92%	14.65	3.30	1.60	3.31%	48%
COP	ConocoPhillips	56.17	10.96%	6.56	8.56	2.64	4.70%	31%
50 Companies

Watch List Review

Topping out list this week is Intel (INTC). The stock continues to be under pressure especially after Advance Micro Devices (AMD) issued a profit warning. Speculation about job cuts, as much as 2,340 jobs (20% of the work force), is also circulating. AMD shares were down -14% on Friday. Despite that, Intel share were down just less than -1%. At the current price, INTC is yielding 4.19% with a conservative payout ratio of 38%. While the short-term picture seems grim, with the PC market slowing to a halt, we still believe the that there is significant value built into INTC and it shouldn’t be ignored. Again, we took a position in Intel about a week ago and would be very excited to see it trade down to $16.

ABM Industries (ABM) has been trading in a "line" formation (between $18-$20) for nearly three months. The stock appears to be retesting the $18 level we saw in mid-July. The company announced a definitive agreement to purchase Air Serv which provides facility management services to airlines and airports. ABM expects to add $650 million to their top line through this acquisition. Based on that, we assume a Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.24 which is a decent figure. Our valuation model shows a possible downside to $15 and upside to $24, a –19%/+34% risk/reward.

Top Five Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from October 14, 2011 and have check their performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

Symbol	Name	2011 Price	2012 Price	% change
WAG	Walgreen Co.	32.90	35.94	9.24%
PEP	PepsiCo Inc.	62.09	70.05	12.82%
BDX	Becton, Dickinson and Co.	73.85	76.62	3.75%
AROW	Arrow Financial Corp.	22.73	24.74	8.84%
FRS	Frisch's Restaurants, Inc	19.52	17.13	-12.24%
			Average	4.48%

DJI	Dow Jones Industrial	11,644.49	13,328.85	14.46%
SPX	S&P 500	1,224.58	1,428.59	16.66%

Our top five underperformed the market by nearly 10% partly due to the loss from Frisch (FRS). All of the stocks on our watch list achieved a +10% gain within a year. In fact, 4 of 5 stocks achieved 15% gains within the year.

Despite the year end losses in FRS, it should be noted that in the process to FRS having a losing year, it also had the largest increase in the year. FRS gained as much as +67% before collapsing within the last two months. The performance of FRS is among the primary reasons why we choose to consider selling if the gain exceeds the historical average.

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Posted in AROW, BDX, Dividend Watch List, FRS, PEP, WAG

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NLO Dividend Watch List: October 14, 2011

Posted on October 14, 2011 by nlo-admin | Leave a comment

The market rebounded nicely this week and pushed many companies out of their 52-week low range. Despite that, there are some great bargains to be had. There are 26 companies on this week's list.

Symbol	Name	Price	% Yr Low	P/E	EPS	Dividend	Yield	Payout Ratio
WAG	Walgreen Co.	32.9	2.81%	11.19	2.94	0.90	2.74%	31%
PEP	PepsiCo Inc.	62.09	4.79%	15.80	3.93	2.06	3.32%	52%
BDX	Becton, Dickinson	73.85	4.83%	12.41	5.95	1.64	2.22%	28%
AROW	Arrow Financial Corp.	22.73	5.28%	12.09	1.88	0.97	4.27%	52%
FRS	Frisch's Restaurants	19.52	5.34%	10.44	1.87	0.64	3.28%	34%
SYY	Sysco Corp.	26.52	5.70%	13.53	1.96	1.04	3.92%	53%
CFR	Cullen/Frost Bankers	46.94	6.58%	13.30	3.53	1.84	3.92%	52%
T	AT&T Inc	29.15	7.16%	8.47	3.44	1.72	5.90%	50%
BCR	CR Bard, Inc.	86.81	7.41%	22.91	3.79	0.76	0.88%	20%
BOH	Bank of Hawaii Corp.	37.79	7.88%	11.21	3.37	1.80	4.76%	53%
VNO	Vornado Realty Trust	76.1	7.93%	16.99	4.48	2.76	3.63%	62%
TR	Tootsie Roll Industries	24.79	7.97%	28.83	0.86	0.32	1.29%	37%
WST	West Pharmaceutical	38.23	8.12%	20.78	1.84	0.72	1.88%	39%
ANAT	American Nat'l Insur.	71.27	8.46%	11.80	6.04	3.08	4.32%	51%
TRV	Travelers	50.65	8.64%	9.57	5.29	1.64	3.24%	31%
BRO	Brown & Brown, Inc.	18.38	9.02%	16.71	1.10	0.32	1.74%	29%
CWT	California Water Service	18.17	9.10%	18.73	0.97	0.62	3.41%	64%
MSEX	Middlesex Water	18.06	9.18%	19.63	0.92	0.73	4.04%	79%
MDT	Medtronic, Inc.	33	9.34%	11.50	2.87	0.97	2.94%	34%
CBSH	Commerce Bancshares	36.39	9.51%	12.90	2.82	0.92	2.53%	33%
NTRS	Northern Trust Corp.	36.75	9.67%	14.58	2.52	1.12	3.05%	44%
WFSL	Washington Federal	13.37	10.04%	15.55	0.86	0.24	1.80%	28%
PRK	Park National Corp.	53.93	10.06%	12.15	4.44	3.76	6.97%	85%
ALL	Allstate Corp.	24.58	10.37%	23.41	1.05	0.84	3.42%	80%
UTX	United Technologies Corp.	74.2	10.55%	14.38	5.16	1.92	2.59%	37%
NU	Northeast Utilities	33.08	11.42%	13.96	2.37	1.10	3.33%	46%

Watch List Summary

Topping our list this week is Walgreen Co. (WAG). Walgreen Co. is currently yielding 2.74% with a conservative P/E ratio of 11. Earnings is expected to grow 11% through 2012. With the stock being so close to the one year low, it appears that the risk-reward may have turned in favor of the investor. We have bought a 10% position of WAG as of Friday October 14th with the expectation to purchase the exact same dollar amount when the price falls by 20% or more. Like moths to a flame, we're drawn to the compounding consistency of Walgreen as demonstrated in the performance of the stock against Apple (AAPL) since Apple's IPO in 1980. In the chart below, only recently has AAPL been able to exceed the total return of Walgreen but by a relatively narrow margin.

Right behind Walgreen Co. is the well known consumer name, Pepsi Co. (PEP). Pepsi Co. has been on our list for some time now so we'll have to see how much longer it would stay. Analysts expect Pepsi to grow its bottom line by 7% next year. Although times may be different, but we can't help but remind investors of Jeremy Siegel's seminal piece "The Nifty Fifty Revisited" (found here). In that piece, Siegel reviews the performance of the "Nifty Fifty" at their peak price in 1972 before their crash. Pepsi Co. (PEP), from the peak in 1972, produced an annualized return of 16.03% in the period from 1972 to 1995.

Becton, Dickinson (BDX) is now on our watch list after our first recommendation of the stock on May 4, 2009. According to Edson Gould’s altimeter (chart below), BDX is now selling below the price paid by Warren Buffett relative to the dividend and subsequent dividend increases. BDX has a dividend payout ratio of 28% which indicates that earnings could fall by 50% without imperiling the company’s ability to make good on their dividend.

Watch List Performance Review

In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from October 8, 2010 and have checked their performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

Symbol	Name	2010 Price	2011 Price	% change
CL	Colgate-Palmolive Co.	74.90	91.99	22.82%
CAG	ConAgra Foods, Inc.	21.87	25.47	16.46%
NTRS	Northern Trust Corp.	48.35	36.63	-24.24%
WST	West Pharmaceutical	35.11	38.3	9.09%
BBT	BB&T Corp.	23.58	22.36	-5.17%
			Average	3.79%

DJI	Dow Jones Industrial	11,062.78	11,573.34	4.62%
SPX	S&P 500	1,176.19	1,215.65	3.35%

The performance of the top five from last year, at 3.79%, was between the Dow's 4.62% and the S&P 500's 3.35%.

Three of the top five stocks from last year performed above the level of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Colgate-Palmolive (CL) cranked out a return of over 22% despite sporting a subpar dividend yield of 2.83%. ConAgra managed to generate a return of 16% with a dividend yield of 4.21% at the time the list was generated. Northern Trust (NTRS) got hammered with a decline of -24.24%.

Disclaimer:

On our current list, we excluded companies that have no earnings. Stocks that appear on our watch lists are not recommendations to buy. Instead, they are the starting point for doing your research and determining the best company to buy. Ideally, a stock that is purchased from this list is done after a considerable decline in the price and extensive due diligence. We suggest that readers use the March 2009 low (or the companies' most distressed level in the last 2 years) as the downside projection for investing. Our view is to embrace the worse case scenario prior to investing. A minimum of 50% decline or the November 2008 to March 2009 low, whichever is lower, would fit that description. It is important to place these companies on your own watch list so that when the opportunity arises, you can purchase them with a greater margin of safety. It is our expectation that, at the most, only 1/3 of the companies that are part of our list will outperform the market over a one-year period.

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Walgreen Co. (WAG): Sell at the Market

Posted on August 27, 2009 by NLObserver Team | Comments Off

It is now time to recommend that Walgreen Co. (WAG) be sold at the market. The stock has severely underperformed since the research recommendation was issued on September 24, 2008. It is highly recommended that anyone who bought the stock based on my research should re-read the posting. It is hoped that the stock was researched and purchased well below the initiation price.

WAG has been on a steady rise since hitting a technical double bottom on March 9th 2009. At the current rate, WAG could easily breach the $39 level in the next few weeks. WAG is up an astounding 59% from the low in March. In the pursuit of "seeking fair profits" the returns that this stock has provided within the last 338 days say that it is necessary to consider alternative opportunities.

WAG was recommended when it was trading at $31. As of August 27, 2009, WAG was quoted at $33.83. This equals a compounded return of 11.03% in 11 months. Conservatively, this would equal approximately 11.91% return. Selling this stock now also generates a return of 6.23x greater than the amount of the dividend yield if the stock was held for that extra month.

As I have indicated in the purposes and function of this site, the goal is to:

maximize the annual yield of each trade.
reduce time between buying and selling of each stock.
exceed the annual yield of government guaranteed alternatives in each trade.

Sell recommendations are intended to deal with the short term reality of the market. The tracking of the Sell recommendations are the worst case scenario if you happen to have bought a stock at the time the research recommendation was made (please avoid making this mistake.) I aim for mediocrity in my returns, therefore I am happy with 9-12% annual gains. However, since codifying my approach to investing in 2005, I have had annual returns of 14% and above every year since.

It is always recommended that when selling a stock, one should not place stop orders, limit orders or orders after hours. This leaves the seller in the position of being vulnerable to the whims of the market makers. Instead, place your sell orders only as a market order during market hours. Some would complain that a market order during market hours might leave some profits on the table. However, I would rather leave some money on the table rather than have it taken away from me by the trades that are placed by institutions and market makers. Touc.

Please revisit Dividend Inc. for editing and revisions to this post.

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Posted in Sell Recommendations, WAG, Walgreen

Category Archives: WAG

Buybacks, Maybe?

Walgreens Price Momentum

Walgreens 10-Year Targets

Walgreens 10-Year Targets

Walgreens Altimeter

Walgreen and Apple

Transaction Alert: Sold WAG, XEC and UNM at the Market

U.S. Dividend Watch List: October 12, 2012

NLO Dividend Watch List: October 14, 2011

Walgreen Co. (WAG): Sell at the Market

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