Our history with Bitcoin goes back to April 2013. It is necessary to review our track record to understand that we attempt to be measured in our assessment.
We do not fully understand the bigger picture issues like blockchain which is the innovation that allows Bitcoin to gain traction. From the beginning we have tracked the price of Bitcoin strictly because all of our previous work has been based on price reflecting human greed, fear, and folly.
Below is a listing of articles that tracked the price of bitcoin and key ideas from each article, warts and all.
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April 10, 2013 at $165.00 (note: using Mt. Gox Index)
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“The current parabolic increase in Bitcoin has a conservative downside target of $89.45 and an extreme downside target of $76.05.”
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actual low at $66.34 on July 5, 2013
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June 26, 2013 at $104.00
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“Downside Target Met”
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November 19, 2013 at $541.83
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“It seems that Bitcoin has experienced a temporary peak in the price.” “Our conservative downside target for Bitcoin, based on the peak closing price of $785.50 is $384.83. The extreme downside target is $261.83. The worst case scenario is for Bitcoin to fall as low as $152.83 as indicated by the red line on the chart.”
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actual low at $177.28 on January 14, 2015.
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“…the next conservative upside target is $1,154.49 if the most recent peak of $785.50 is exceeded.”
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actual peak at $1,237.96 on December 4, 2013.
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December 18, 2013 at $522.23
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“Bitcoin has declined from the recent peak of $1237.96 down to the conservative downside target of $535.65. With the conservative downside target being achieved, the extreme downside target of $412.65 and the worst case level of $152.83 are all that remains. However, in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has declined as low as $455. This suggests there there could be a significant appreciation from the current level as the conservative downside target has been achieved. Our revised upside target is now $1,606.95.”
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“Those willing accept the extreme volatility and political risk should seriously consider Bitcoin at or below the $412.65 ascending line with a willingness to see a decline of –62.96%.”
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February 8, 2014 at $842.01
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“We’re now faced with the potential for Bitcoin to achieve the ascending downside target of $412.65 (now at approximately $570) followed by the worst case level of $200 (ascending red line).”
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Actual low at $177.28 on January 14, 2015.
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February 16, 2014 at $610.65 (note: switched from Mt. Gox Index to Coindesk Index)
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“In the final review, either the other Bitcoin exchanges will drop to the quoted Mt. Gox level or Mt. Gox quotes will rise appreciably. Regardless, at the current level of $300-$200, Bitcoin is fairly valued.”
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October 7, 2014 at $334.09
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“In this case, the bitcoin average, as published by Coindesk.com, did manage to decline to the Mt. Gox level in the $300-$200 range. This suggests to us that, for speculators only, bitcoin is worth the plunge. Based on the revised price peak of $1,147.25, bitcoin has a conservative upside target price of $723.34 and an extreme upside target of $1,446.68.”
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January 14, 2015 at $177.28
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“…the nature of the October 7, 2014 piece implied that the price of Bitcoin was headed higher. Little did we know that the actual trajectory would be a continuation of the declining trend. Since the October 5th low, Bitcoin was only able to increase by as much as +33.66%. Ultimately, the decline that ensued since October 5th has equaled –43.23%.”
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November 4, 2015 at $408.74
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“If the current run-up is anything like those in the past, $1,051 could be a relatively small number. However, each of the indicated upside targets must be achieved first before we can start giving estimates of how far beyond $1,051 Bitcoin could go.”
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November 11, 2015 at $312.58
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“The next point to watch for is the $245.83 level where we should expect an intermediate bounce in the price.”
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June 3, 2016 at $570.47
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“We were wrong about Bitcoin declining to the mid-range target, however, with the recent ascent in the price, we now need to focus on the conservative downside target based on the high of $538.15.”
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January 1, 2017 at $997.69
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As highlighted on the chart above, the downside targets are as follows:$772.12 (conservative), $553.75 (mid range), and $335.39 (extreme)
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The upside targets are as follows: $1,158.18 (conservative), $1,737.26 (mid range), and $2,316.35 (extreme).
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"...the extreme upside level is a reasonable level to expect."
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January 12, 2017 at $802.83
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“According to CoinDesk.com, Bitcoin achieved a closing high of $1,129.87 on January 4, 2017. Since that peak, Bitcoin has managed to plunge to the conservative downside target of $772.12 on January 12, 2017. Those who wish to speculate on Bitcoin should assess the risks and consider buy[ing] at [the] current levels and lower. Those who wish to “invest” in Bitcoin should assess the risks and considering buying at or below the mid range target of $553.75 or lower.”
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May 10, 2017 at $1,756.80
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“We recommend selling now and watch for the ascending downside targets.”
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May 31, 2017 at $2,330.23
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“When applying Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines to the price of Bitcoin, we see that the ascending downside targets as follows: $1,262.16 (conservative target), $1,043.80 (mid-range target), and $825.43 (extreme target).”
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“The upside targets are: $1,893.25 (conservative target), $2,839.87 (mid-range target), and $3,786.49 (extreme target).”
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June 15, 2017 at $2,456.92
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“The downside targets for Bitcoin are: $1,442.91 (conservative target), $1,224.55 (mid range target), and $1,006.17 (extreme target).”
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“…we have the following upside targets before there is additional upside resistance: $3,246.56 and $4,328.74.”
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June 26, 2017 at $2,485.36
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“July 2010 to November 2011 Bitcoin increases +36,900% and then declines –93.07% within a two year period.”
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“November 2011 to July 2013 Bitcoin increases +9,771% and falls –70.93% in less than two years.”
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“April 2013 to October 2014, Bitcoin increases +1,629% and falls –72.21% in less than two years.”
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“We can’t be certain that history will repeat. However, the evidence suggests that a decline of –70% to –90% is the norm.”
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August 21, 2017 at $4,054.94
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“What we got wrong: On June 15, 2017, we proposed that a prior decline of –14.94% had set expectations of what Bitcoin participants were willing to accept for downside risk. That logic was turned on its head when Bitcoin declined from the high of $3,018.55 and then fell as low as $1,938.94 or –35.76%.”
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“Keep in mind that we’re sticking to our original thesis that parabolic moves are resolved through dramatic declines. We believe that the conservative downside target of $1,911.83 will be achieved.”
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“In accounting for the upside potential, we only have one remaining target which is at $5,735.49.”
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September 5, 2017 at $4,422.12
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“This is all you need to know, Bitcoin is setting the stage for dramatic fireworks.”
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September 14, 2017 at $3,226.41
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“Bitcoin is going through the customary pullback in the price. The new threshold to watch for is –35.77% on the downside.”
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“..we’re not talking about a stodgy technology stock index, we’re talking about a potentially new currency mechanism which will likely supplant many existing currencies.”
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“You have to imagine that Bitcoin participants aren’t fools about the prospects for the future.”
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“…we’re watching the $3,179.85 level in Bitcoin to see if participants are willing to accept even more pain before the bottom falls out and achieves the historical average decline –70% or more.”
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September 30, 2017 at $4,353.05
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“Whoever is on top today is likely to not be a contender down the road. In fact, we believe that a yet-to-be-determined entrant will likely supplant Bitcoin as the “it” cryptocurrency. How are we going to find out the latest and greatest cryptocurrency? It will take a deflation and inflation cycle to get us there.”
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October 13, 2017 at $5,640.13
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“At this point, as Bitcoin sits within 7% of the last published target, we cannot take seriously the updated target that has been generated ($7,166.29) based on our Speed Resistance Line calculations. We are throwing in the towel on taking the $7,166.29 figure, and any future upside targets that go uncorrected to the tune of –50% or more, as something we can feel confident is worth the speculation.”
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"...the downside targets now rest at the following levels: $2,391.76 (conservative), $2,173.40 (mid-range), and $1,955.03 (extreme).”
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You’re either holding for dear life on the move upward or accepting the downside risk to $2,391.76. New downside targets will be updated with each substantive rise.
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November 13, 2017 at $ 6,517.68
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“To arrive at our downside targets, we need to point out what we’re not looking for as the price of Bitcoin falls.”
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“Taking the most extreme decline of –35.77%, we have to expect that even a fall of –40% would still draw in enough new speculators to take the price to the prior high.”
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"...below are the revised downside targets. Conservative target: $2,922.99, mid range target: $2,704.61, extreme target: $2,486.36."
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“There are two consistent patterns that have emerged in Bitcoin that we can point out so far. First, when the bubble bursts the price of Bitcoin always achieves the conservative downside target.”
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“Second, in the run-up since 2014, the decline has been approximately half of the amount between the conservative target and the prior peak.”
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November 30, 2017 at $9,916.54
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“conservative downside target at $3,739.47.”
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December 22, 2017 at $13,857.14
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“We believe that there is going to be limited upside in the near term.”
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“We think that the conservative downside target will be achieved before a new high is seen.”
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“this run-up in bitcoin (+10,828%) is only slightly exceeding that of the 2011-2013 increase of +9,771%, as seen in the chart below.”
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“In all prior booms, the subsequent bust AVERAGED –70%.”
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“conservative downside target at $6,884.31.”
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January 17, 2018 at $11,141.45
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“As indicated above, the 19,343.04 peak was followed with a conservative downside target of $6,884.31.”
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“Below are the revised downside targets $5,579.21, $2,965.41, and $1,339.64."’
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“Anyone willing to participate in Bitcoin should be willing to accept that the price could easily decline –70%, as has been the average of all previous Bitcoin busts.”
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February 1, 2018 at $9,052.58
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“If you are remotely interested in buying Bitcoin, then you’re only interested in buying it at levels below $6,884.31.”
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February 5, 2018 at $6,914.26
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“If you’re holding Bitcoin at this point, it is because you are comfortable with the projected downside target of $6,684.31 to $5,802.91.”
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February 17, 2018 at $11,092.15
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"Below are the upside targets for Bitcoin: $13,128.65, $16,235.85 and $19,343.04.”
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“…before a new high (substantially above the $19,343) is achieved, we expected a retest of the $6,914.26 level (or something close, like, $7,000-$7,200).”
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April 2, 2018 at $7,049.79
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“We have outlined the Dow Theory 50% Principle to indicated the difference between the $11,479.73 high and the $6,816.74 low.”
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“Based on the recent volume characteristics, we think that the $9,148.23 is in the works.”
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“Failure to achieve the 50% Principle would be an indication of a retest of the $6,816.74 level and then a potential decline to the $3,713 level.”
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April 27, 2018 at $8,978.33
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“As of April 27, 2018, Bitcoin is priced at $9,278.22 and has achieved our target of $9,148.23 as outlined in Dow Theory.”
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“At this stage in the game, Bitcoin is in a no-man’s land.”
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“While there are always three directions that the price could go (up, down, or sideways for a long time) this juncture is strictly to be played for the extreme of going back to the $11,479.73 or $6,914.26 level.”
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“…if Bitcoin exceeds $11,479.73 it would be a huge reversal of the declining trend and could be consider the confirmation of a new bull market with the minimum upside target of $20,000. Under the circumstances described, Bitcoin could achieve a $37,000-$52,000 level before a meaningful downside is experienced.”
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June 10, 2018 at $6,765.80
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“Decline below $6,620.41 and $3,713 is the projected downside target.”
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“Bouncing at the current level should result in a retest of the $9,148.23 level.”
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July 21, 2018 at $7,404.29
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“The declining trend has to end at some point.”
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“At this stage in the price of Bitcoin, the only concern is the upside potential which would also give us clues to a reversal of the declining trend.”
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“All Bitcoin needs to do is exceed the 7,837.43 level for a reasonable level of confidence of upside prospects.”
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“The only concern is that most major trend reversals require a retest of the prior low. That means that even if the price of Bitcoin goes above the $7,837.43 level, it will most likely decline back to the $5,848.26.”
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“Not falling below $5,848.26 would be a very constructive trend in the price of Bitcoin.”
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August 2018 at $7,033
- December 14, 2018 at $3,212.21
- February 28, 2019 at $3,799.68
- May 29, 2019 at $8,651.83
- June 27, 2019 at $10,971.50
- September 25, 2019 at $8,339.80
- October 28, 2019 at $9,434.19
- November 6, 2019 at $9,360.88
- January 7, 2021 at $39,371.04
- February 16, 2021 at $49,199.87
- February 20, 2021 at $56,099.52
- May 16, 2021 $46,456.06
- October 22, 2021 at $60,692.27
- October 24, 2021 at $60,930.84
- January 8, 2022 at $41,733.94
- March 18, 2022 at $41,801.16
- April 11, 2022 at $39,521.90
- April 12, 2022 at $40,127.18
- April 19, 2022 at $41,502.75
- June 12, 2022 at $26,762.65
- June 18, 2022 at $19,017.64
- August 11, 2022 at $24,169.41
- November 9, 2022 at $17,586.77
- November 9, 2022 at $17,586.77
- November 11, 2022 at $16,799.19
- January 10, 2023 at $17,934.90
- January 23, 2023 at $22,636.47
- January 8, 2024 at $46,139.73
- March 6, 2024 at $66,925.48
- September 14, 2024 at $59,952.82
We have attempted to keep our work on the topic as sparing as possible, in spite of rapid market movements.