Market Return After Exceptional Year – 2023

It’s no secret that 2023 was an exceptional year to be long the market. S&P 500 gained 23.8% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 13.7%. In this review, we review the historical return of the subsequent year after a strong market uptrend. This frame work provide an objective view for market performance from historical pattern. For more on this work, review or original post here. Continue reading

Tesla Downside Targets

Below is a chart of Tesla Inc. (TSLA) from 2019 to 2024, reflecting Edson Gould’s Speed Resistance Lines.

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U.S. Dividend Watch List: January 19, 2024

The market picked up steam this week as the S&P 500 rose to its all-time high and push YTD gain to 2%. We will keep an eye out for Nasdaq to see if it can achieve all-time high level of 16,000. Despite strong up swing, there are more companies showing up on our watch list. Continue reading

Crude Oil Price Momentum

Below is a chart of Crude Oil from 2022-2024, reflecting Price Momentum data.

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2 Weeks In Thailand

Thailand is one of the larger economies in Asia coming in at #10 and is #2 in South East Asia region. Over the holiday, I spent 2 weeks in Thailand and wanted to share few observations during my trip.

U.S. Dollar Goes a Long Way in Thailand

One of the benefit of traveling there is the U.S. Dollar has tremendous purchasing power in that region of the world. Because of the recent rise in interest rates in the U.S., the Dollar rose in relation to Thai Baht. In 5 years, the Dollar gained nearly 10%. Our delicious meal for 4 cost typically around $10 – $12! Pictured below is $2.50 Pad Thai at a restaurant.

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Pad Thai $2.50

Economic Narrative Is Always Negative

Regardless of where I go or who I speak to, the narrative of the economy is always negative. This was my fifth time visiting this beautiful country and that narrative never changed. I’ve asked Taxi drivers, restaurant operators, or successful business operators, the conversation always steer toward low economic output. However, a lot of the focus this time was around inflation. I find the Thai narrative of bad economy fascinating and leads me to believe it is part of human psychology to lean on the negative side.

Stock Market – SET Index

Turning our attention to the stock market in Thailand or the SET Index. Perhaps the narrative fits the reality when compared to the stock market. For 5 years, the index declined 11%. This is much better than the Hang Seng (Hong Kong) which declined a whopping -40% over the same period. Nifty 50 (India) doubled in the last 5 years. Take the SET Index and apply that to our Price Momentum Indicator and we see a better buying opportunity ahead (see screenshot below). Our PMI showed that when price reach lower ranges (green dotted line), a purchase with a holding time frame of 3 years produced positive returns 88% of the time with annualized gain of 9%.

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Bitcoin Review

Below is what we believe to be a step-by-step approach to analyze the gyrations of Bitcoin.  We hope it is instructive. Continue reading

U.S. Dividend Watch List: January 5, 2024

We started 2024 on a downbeat for the market as the S&P was lowered by nearly 2% for the week. Nasdaq slid nearly 4%. On the larger scale, we are near all-time high territory so a pull back should be expected. As a by product of that pull back, our watch list contains more companies this week. Continue reading

2024 Dogs of the TSX 60

Below is the Dogs of the TSX 60 for 2024 with the breakdown of the other categories that we track. Continue reading

2024 Dogs of the Dow

Below is the Dogs of the Dow for 2024 with the breakdown of the other categories that we track. Continue reading

Buybacks, Maybe?

Q: “Maybe low yield out performs because instead of dividends they are doing buybacks?”

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NLO Market Indicator Revisit

We received a question from our member and wanted to revisit our market indicator:

Hi New Low – I have a question about the market indicators — right now, the buy is showing -5, and the sell is showing -1…. I’m not sure what this means because you say when the sell is -1, that’s a bearish indicator and a time to preserve cash, but the buy is showing quite bullish at -5 (given you say it’s a time to be bullish at -6).

The market indicator is our proprietary model that combines various data into a single model with the intention of identifying inflection points in the market. Continue reading

2024 Penultimate Profit Prospect

2024 Penultimate Profit Prospect and our Alternative Continue reading

2023 Review: Dogs of the TSX 60

On January 2, 2023, we said the following:

“…the low yield stocks have the better growth potential and when we consider that it is looking like a toss-up when choosing between the two, we'd rather opt for the growth component of the dividend paying stocks.”

The results of the 2023 performance are instructive. Continue reading

2023 Review: Dogs of the Dow

On January 3, 2023, due to being overseas, we posted the Dogs of the Dow list with the alternate rankings of the stocks, without commentary. Below we have posted the performance of the respective categories. Continue reading

Transaction Alert

We executed the following transaction(s): Continue reading